<![CDATA[7 Things: 7T | Pro]]>https://7thin.gs/s/7t-prohttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H4DF!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5eecf6ab-a958-452b-a08b-687f5259b9b5_1080x1080.png7 Things: 7T | Prohttps://7thin.gs/s/7t-proSubstackTue, 07 Jul 2026 14:18:43 GMT<![CDATA[Goldman folds on yen. 110 ships, zero response.]]>https://7thin.gs/p/goldman-folds-on-yen-110-ships-zerohttps://7thin.gs/p/goldman-folds-on-yen-110-ships-zeroMon, 06 Jul 2026 06:15:15 GMTWTI $69 · DXY 101 · VIX 16 · GPR 174↑

China’s PBOC daily fixing has allowed USD/CNY to drift to 6.79 – up 0.2% this month – as FDI inflows collapse to 0.2% of GDP, suggesting the yuan’s managed stability is eroding rather than holding. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs revised USD/JPY forecasts to 165 over twelve months as the yen sits at a 1986 low of 161.83; Br…

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]]><![CDATA[Yen cliff edge. Beijing reads 6.77. Defence bets on forever war.]]>https://7thin.gs/p/yen-cliff-edge-beijing-reads-677https://7thin.gs/p/yen-cliff-edge-beijing-reads-677Sun, 05 Jul 2026 06:01:50 GMTWTI $69 · DXY 101 · VIX 16 · GPR 174↑

Russia’s July 2, 2026 Kyiv strike kills 27 people five days before NATO’s Ankara summit, where a $140 billion Ukraine commitment is expected to survive intact despite Trump’s “one-sided” framing – while separately, US CPI at 4.2% and PPI at 6.5% price the war’s cost into American grocery bills rather than appropriati…

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]]><![CDATA[The week every post-war bill landed at once]]>https://7thin.gs/p/the-week-every-post-war-bill-landedhttps://7thin.gs/p/the-week-every-post-war-bill-landedSun, 05 Jul 2026 05:00:53 GMTS&P 500 ▲ 7,483.24 · Brent ▲ $72.13 · Gold ▲ $4,187.30 · VIX ▼ 16.1 · 10Y UST ▼ 4.37%

The Iran war’s ceasefire of 1 March 2026 was supposed to close the economic chapter. Four months on, the downstream costs keep compounding. Gasoline crack spreads sit at $53 a barrel, near June 2022 highs. The ECB hiked rates on war-driven inflation. Core inflation acce…

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]]><![CDATA[Tehran’s missing Supreme Leader]]>https://7thin.gs/p/tehrans-missing-supreme-leaderhttps://7thin.gs/p/tehrans-missing-supreme-leaderSat, 04 Jul 2026 05:15:50 GMTS&P 500 ▲ 7,483.24 (Fri close) · Brent ▲ $72.13 · Gold ▲ $4,187.30 · VIX ▼ 15.8 · 10Y UST 4.37% (last close)

Iran opened six days of funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday. Authorities expect up to 20 million mourners in Tehran – the largest state funeral in the republic’s history. His successor and son Mojtaba will not attend. He has …

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]]><![CDATA[The refinery war comes to Kyiv]]>https://7thin.gs/p/the-refinery-war-comes-to-kyivhttps://7thin.gs/p/the-refinery-war-comes-to-kyivFri, 03 Jul 2026 05:15:54 GMT

Russia launched 570 aerial objects at Kyiv overnight — 74 missiles and 496 drones — in what Moscow called retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on its refineries. At least 27 were killed and 130 buildings damaged across 33 locations. Putin had days earlier conceded the refinery campaign is causing domestic pain; ninety per cent of Russian regions report fue…

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]]><![CDATA[The perpetual renegotiation]]>https://7thin.gs/p/the-perpetual-renegotiationhttps://7thin.gs/p/the-perpetual-renegotiationThu, 02 Jul 2026 05:15:54 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,483.23 · Brent ▼ $70.84 · Gold ▲ $4,081.50 · VIX ▲ 16.6 · 10Y UST ▲ 4.47%

Washington renegotiates its own trade deal while Moscow – the world's second-largest crude exporter – shops for imported gasoline. Brussels demands a trade rebalance with Beijing while buying Chinese air conditioners at double last year's pace. A propane glut proves the…

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]]><![CDATA[Back to surplus]]>https://7thin.gs/p/back-to-surplushttps://7thin.gs/p/back-to-surplusWed, 01 Jul 2026 05:15:55 GMTS&P 500 ▲ 7,499.36 · Brent ▲ $73.26 · Gold ▼ $3,989.20 · VIX ▼ 16.5 · 10Y UST ▲ 4.42%

Brent crude has collapsed roughly 30 per cent this quarter, the steepest fall since early 2020, as shipping through Hormuz returns to pre-war levels. Morgan Stanley warns the market could tip into surplus by 2027 with only partial recovery in Gulf flows. But the 60-day …

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]]><![CDATA[Doha, again]]>https://7thin.gs/p/doha-againhttps://7thin.gs/p/doha-againTue, 30 Jun 2026 05:15:56 GMTS&P 500 ▲ 7,440.43 · Brent ▲ $73.70 · Gold ▼ $3,987.70 · VIX ▼ 17.6 · 10Y UST ▲ 4.37%

Trump announced that Iran had requested talks in Doha on Tuesday; hours later, Tehran’s deputy foreign minister denied any meeting was planned. Brent fell 8.4 per cent on the assumption of peace, nearly erasing all gains since the February strikes. But the 14-point MoU …

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]]><![CDATA[Paper peace, live fire]]>https://7thin.gs/p/paper-peace-live-firehttps://7thin.gs/p/paper-peace-live-fireMon, 29 Jun 2026 05:15:54 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,354.02 (Fri) · Brent ▲ $73.25 · Gold ▲ $4,080.00 · VIX ▼ 18.4 (Fri) · 10Y UST ▼ 4.37% (Fri)

Washington and Tehran exchanged strikes over the weekend. The US hit 10 Iranian targets after Iran struck the Panamanian-flagged M/T Kiku on the Oman-side corridor – the route Muscat built with the IMO to bypass Iranian control. Iran retaliated against…

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]]><![CDATA[The week three supply chains cracked open]]>https://7thin.gs/p/the-week-three-supply-chains-crackedhttps://7thin.gs/p/the-week-three-supply-chains-crackedSun, 28 Jun 2026 05:00:57 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,357.49 · Brent ▼ $71.99 · Gold ▼ $4,078.70 · VIX ▲ 18.9 · 10Y UST ▼ 4.45%

Between 22 and 28 June, three supply chains broke. Brent crude settled near $72, 40 per cent below the wartime peak. The calm rests on inventory draws, not restored Gulf production — Bank of America estimates more than one billion barrels lost since March. The 60-day oi…

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]]><![CDATA[The $40 billion strait]]>https://7thin.gs/p/the-40-billion-straithttps://7thin.gs/p/the-40-billion-straitFri, 26 Jun 2026 05:15:56 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,357.49 · Brent ▼ $74.11 · Gold ▼ $4,025.80 · VIX ▲ 18.9 · 10Y UST ▼ 4.39%

Iran struck a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz six days after agreeing to reopen it. Hours later, Tehran pitched Gulf neighbours on a $40 billion annual toll to monetise the threat. The two moves are one. The drone enforces the claim that only Iranian-designated r…

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]]><![CDATA[Seventy-dollar oil and an empty arsenal]]>https://7thin.gs/p/seventy-dollar-oil-and-an-empty-arsenalhttps://7thin.gs/p/seventy-dollar-oil-and-an-empty-arsenalThu, 25 Jun 2026 05:15:55 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,358.22 · Brent ▼ $72.52 · Gold ▲ $4,005.60 · VIX ▼ 18.6 · 10Y UST ▼ 4.40%

Oil erased its wartime premium on 24 June. Brent settled at $72.52 and WTI near $70 – both at their lowest since 28 February, the day before strikes on Iran began. But Cushing inventories hit a 42-year low, shipping remains 10 per cent displaced, and the fertiliser chai…

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]]><![CDATA[Congress says stop; Tehran says keep paying]]>https://7thin.gs/p/congress-says-stop-tehran-says-keephttps://7thin.gs/p/congress-says-stop-tehran-says-keepWed, 24 Jun 2026 05:15:56 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,365.46 · Brent ▼ $76.46 · Gold ▼ $4,073.40 · VIX ▲ 19.5 · 10Y UST ▲ 4.49%

The Senate voted 50–48 to direct Trump to halt the Iran war — the first time both chambers have passed a war powers resolution since 1973. The vote is symbolic; the 60-day OFAC waiver already authorises Iranian crude sales in US dollars for the first time in four decade…

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]]><![CDATA[The price of an open strait]]>https://7thin.gs/p/the-price-of-an-open-straithttps://7thin.gs/p/the-price-of-an-open-straitTue, 23 Jun 2026 05:21:56 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,472.79 · Brent ▼ $77.62 · Gold ▼ $4,160.00 · VIX ▲ 17.3 · 10Y UST ▲ 4.51%

Iran won a 60-day window to sell crude in US dollars – the broadest sanctions reversal since 2015. But the deal’s three parts run at different speeds. The waiver took effect immediately. Hormuz runs on Tehran’s permits: 55 ships crossed on Saturday, 12 the next day. Inf…

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]]><![CDATA[Twelve ships through Hormuz]]>https://7thin.gs/p/twelve-ships-through-hormuzhttps://7thin.gs/p/twelve-ships-through-hormuzMon, 22 Jun 2026 05:19:49 GMTS&P 500 ▲ 7,500.58 (last close) · Brent ▼ $79.32 · Gold ▼ $4,194.20 · VIX ▼ 16.4 (last close) · 10Y UST ▼ 4.45% (last close)

Twelve ships crossed Hormuz on Sunday, down from 35 the day before. Hours earlier, the Bürgenstock summit had produced a 60-day US–Iran roadmap and a Lebanon deconfliction cell. Five of eight entering vessels ran dark. Israel is no…

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]]><![CDATA[Sixty days that may never start]]>https://7thin.gs/p/sixty-days-that-may-never-starthttps://7thin.gs/p/sixty-days-that-may-never-startSun, 21 Jun 2026 05:15:50 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,420.10 (last close) · Brent ▲ $80.59 (Fri) · Gold ▼ $4,172.90 (Fri) · VIX ▲ 18.4 (last close) · 10Y UST 4.45% (Fri)

Iran’s joint military command declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on Saturday, four days after Tehran signed a deal with Washington requiring it to reopen within 60 days. The precondition — a Lebanon ceasefire — collapsed the n…

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]]><![CDATA[The week Hormuz reopened – on Iran’s terms]]>https://7thin.gs/p/the-week-hormuz-reopened-on-iranshttps://7thin.gs/p/the-week-hormuz-reopened-on-iransSun, 21 Jun 2026 05:00:53 GMTS&P 500 ▲ 7,420 · Brent ▼ ~$80 · VIX ▼ 18 · 10Y UST ▼ 4.49%

Four months into the US-Iran confrontation that closed the Strait of Hormuz, a memorandum of understanding reopened it this week. Markets celebrated: Brent fell 30 per cent from its April peak, equities hit records, and the VIX dropped below 19. But the terms of reopening matter more than the re…

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]]><![CDATA[The deal nobody controls]]>https://7thin.gs/p/the-deal-nobody-controlshttps://7thin.gs/p/the-deal-nobody-controlsSat, 20 Jun 2026 07:59:10 GMT

Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon nearly torpedoed the US–Iran MoU within 72 hours of its signing. A separate Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire, brokered by Washington and Qatar, stopped Lebanon from killing the deal. Neither signed the MoU, yet both hold veto power. Vance cancelled his Switzerland trip; Witkoff and Kushner fly Saturday instead. Iran insists…

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]]><![CDATA[Hormuz reopens, but Iran keeps the meter running]]>https://7thin.gs/p/hormuz-reopens-but-iran-keeps-thehttps://7thin.gs/p/hormuz-reopens-but-iran-keeps-theFri, 19 Jun 2026 05:15:52 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,420.10 (Fri) · Brent ▼ $79.15 · Gold ▼ $4,163.30 · VIX ▼ 16.4 · 10Y UST ▼ 4.45%

Trump signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran at Versailles, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. Tehran has already signalled it will charge maritime fees once the 60-day toll-free window expires — converting a wartime cl…

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]]><![CDATA[Signed, but not settled]]>https://7thin.gs/p/signed-but-not-settled-ae9https://7thin.gs/p/signed-but-not-settled-ae9Thu, 18 Jun 2026 05:15:49 GMTS&P 500 ▼ 7,420.10 · Brent ▼ $78.11 · Gold ▼ $4,338.20 · VIX ▲ 18.4 · 10Y UST ▼ 4.46%

A 14-point memorandum signed in Islamabad extends the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and pledges a $300 billion reconstruction framework. Iran committed never to develop nuclear weapons, but enrichment limits, ballistic missiles, and Lebanon…

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