Americans Vote For a Multipolar World. What Trump’s Second Coming Means For Europe, Ukraine and the Middle East. Plus more! #232
Why you should vote for young politicians, and why Black Americans get old fast.
Grüezi!
The one thing non-Americans have all learned about the US this election cycle? It’s a very different place to the one they imagined.
A country of costly healthcare but cheap energy. A resource-rich powerhouse where innovation, intellect, and invention compete with god, guns and greed.
One thing that disappears with the Democrats? The illusion of values-based diplomacy. Middle Eastern readers may laugh hollowly, but Europeans have been comforting themselves with this whilst cashing US security cheques.
So where does this leave the rest of us?
1️⃣ Dazed in Europa
Asia’s western archipelago – where declining relative power meets unrealised collective might.
Europe’s deferential interest in the US election result speaks to a continent that is more craven than classy.
Europe relies on the east for its business and the west for its defence. And its long term strategic plan is one of muddling through aka lurching from crisis to crisis.
Defended from the West
80% of NATO defence spending comes from non-EU members;
EU members spend 1.5% GDP on defence vs. US 3.5%;
60% of EU military equipment systems have US parts;
NATO provides over 75% of Europe’s air defence capability.
Trading with the East
Europe’s largest trading partner is China. EU-China trade was €856B in 2022, but that trade is played to rules set in Washington.
98% of the EU’s rare earth supplies come from China.
US-EU trade is substantial – €750B annually – but it’s a declining share of the total.
Russia supplied 40% of EU gas before 2022.
Technologically torn…
90% of EU cloud services run on US platforms (AWS, Azure, Google);
But China controls 75% of global battery production capacity;
The EU has only 10% of global semiconductor manufacturing;
And US companies have 47% of EU digital platform market share.
Compromised doesn’t really begin to do justice to Europe’s strategic position.
‘Shock Therapy’
Some Europeans have suggested quietly that Trump’s return could be a form of ‘shock therapy’ – similar to the ways in which the pandemic and the energy crisis spurred greater levels of EU cooperation.
Yet optimism is often punched in the face by reality. Complete European strategic autonomy remains a “colossal challenge" – both “costly and divisive.”
And the fact that only 2% of combined US-China GDP is affected by current sanctions ($700bn since 2017) shows that a dramatic global decoupling remains unlikely.
The Two Front Trade War
Trump’s return complicates Europe’s already difficult China balancing act.
Goldman Sachs reckons Trump’s proposed tariffs could slice 1% off EU GDP (over 2% for if you’re German).
But with the EU imposing duties of 8-35% on Chinese EVs, they’re already fighting a trade war on two fronts.
You’ll likely see more moves like Germany’s approach to talk up Chinese mediation in Ukraine whilst trying to reduce industrial dependency in key sectors.
Europe’s Triple-Track Strategy
Europe’s approach will probably continue to be:
Selective Decoupling;
Diplomatic Flexibility;
Institutional Strengthening.
Yes, “muddling through.”
2️⃣ Trump’s Victory: Three Things it Means for Ukraine
Immediate peace probably isn’t one of them.
These are the three things to look out for:
1. US Pressure
Trump has repeatedly vowed to “end the war in 24 hours.” His leverage? US aid.
The US is Ukraine’s biggest military supporter;
Ukraine has already struggled through a 9-month Republican aid blockage;
Ammunition shortages are affecting battlefield performance;
Ukraine’s funds are dwindling.
2. Russian Calculations
Even Moscow is sceptical of quick solutions. Here’s former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev:
“Trump will not be able to stop the war — not in a day, not in 3 days, not in 3 months.”
Russians remember Trump’s 2018 “betrayal,” when he sent anti-tank weapons to Ukraine.
Putin’s insistence that any peace must reflect “reality on the ground.”
3. Ukraine’s Hard Choices
Ukraine faces tough decisions. Battlefield realities make it even tougher:
50% of power capacity is destroyed and winter is coming;
Severe manpower shortages;
Russia is gaining ground, albeit slowly;
North Korean troops now supporting Russian offensive.
Australian general Mick Ryan says:
“Even if a Trump administration attempts to force them into an unsustainable armistice, Ukraine would likely choose to fight on without US support.”
The wild card? Trump’s personality-led diplomacy. If he can’t achieve a quick diplomatic win, “fear of looking weak” could actually lead to increased support for Ukraine.
Despite the deal-making rhetoric, Ukraine faces a winter of perilous uncertainty. Expect a Ukrainian dolchstoßlegende as it prepares itself to be “sold out” by the West.
#ForeignPolicy #Ukraine #Trump2024 #InternationalRelations
3️⃣ What Trump’s Return Means for the Middle East
Feeling a warm glow in the Gulf.
As Trump returns to the White House in 2025, the Gaza conflict has recast the Middle East very differently from 2021:
1. 🤝 Saudi-Iranian détente
Cautious thaw: Joint Saudi-Iranian naval exercises in Sea of Oman;
Helped by a new kid on the block: Beijing-brokered diplomatic rapprochement;
Strategic shift: Saudi Arabia is positioning itself towards a more multipolar world;
Result: Joining BRICS, signalling new alignment.
2. 🇵🇸 Palestine
New dynamic: Arab states more unified on Palestinian rights;
Saudi position: Palestinian state prerequisite for Israel normalisation;
Trump in Dearborn: “You’re going to have peace in the Middle East.”
Trump 2.0: Must navigate stronger regional consensus on Palestine.
3. 🇮🇱 Israel
Trump 1.0: Abraham Accords bypassed the Palestinians;
New Context: Regional unity over Gaza changes the diplomatic equation;
Complexity: Israeli actions are strengthening Iran-Saudi cooperation.
4. 💼 Strategic implications
US influence: Declining as regional powers pursue independent policies;
China factor: Beijing’s diplomatic success challenges US dominance;
Military dynamics: Joint Iran-Saudi exercises signal a new security architecture;
Economic shift: BRICS expansion indicates multipolar future;
For the wider region, Trump’s personal and family business interests could still provide leverage points for regional actors to influence US policy, even as traditional diplomatic channels wither.
#ForeignPolicy #MiddleEast #GlobalAffairs #Diplomacy #InternationalRelations
4️⃣ Populism Isn’t A Threat To Democracy
Politicians are.
In the wake of another “populist” victory, worth re-reading Larry Bartels in Foreign Affairs with some counter-intuitive truths about populism and democracy.
Research shows its culture war issues, not economic hardship, that push up populist support. But is populism per se a threat to democracy?
The real threat to democracy? Conniving political elites.
Democratic erosion typically starts from the top, not from voters. Hungary and Poland both show how institutional changes were driven by political leaders after they gained power, not by voters wanting more authoritarianism.
The greatest threat to democratic institutions is from political leaders willing to bend democratic rules to hang onto power.
America’s been there once, and enough of its voters obviously think it survived the experience unscathed.
5️⃣Want Long-Term Solutions to Tough Problems?
Brazil may have the answer… vote for young people.
It turns out young politicians are best when it comes to tackling long-term problems like environmental conservation.
A study of Brazilian municipalities found that when mayors under 35 take office, deforestation drops by over two-thirds compared to areas where they narrowly lost elections.
And the environmental gains come with no significant negative impact on local GDP.
Young mayors also:
Increase education spending;
Reduce municipal debt;
Cut greenhouse gas emissions;
Hire more young civil servants.
But is this down to the far-sightedness of youth?
It appears to be a generational effect rather than just age – these mayors all grew up in schools that had to put environmental education on the curriculum after Brazil’s 1988 Constitution.
Education plus electoral power can deliver change.
#ClimateAction #Leadership #PublicPolicy #Governance #Sustainability #Research
6️⃣ Want To Live Longer In America?
Don’t be Black.
Imagine a world where some people age 20 years overnight.
You don’t have to imagine too hard in America. It’s close to reality.
It’s the extraordinary physical toll of unequal outcomes over generations, written into people’s health care records, and documented in a groundbreaking new study.
The findings are staggering:
By age 55, the bodies of Black Americans’ show the kind of wear and tear you see in white Americans 13-20 years older.
The real gap may be wider still – researchers found extensive under-diagnosis of illnesses in minority communities.
Premature aging ripples through entire lifetimes: less time in work, earlier disability, reduced retirement savings, and – ultimately – shorter lives.
These health disparities explain HALF the gap in disability rates, working years, and life expectancy between racial groups.
Systemic racism is often spoken about in theoretical or academic terms. Some even struggle to believe it’s real. But there’s nothing abstract about aging decades faster than your fellow citizens.
#HealthEquity #SystemicChange #EconomicJustice #PublicHealth #Leadership
7️⃣ RIP Quincy Jones
He told it like it was.
Shakes head…
Thanks for reading!
Adrian
Trump may surprise us on the Ukraine war
The Populist Phantom: Threats to Democracy Start at the Top
Young Politicians and Long-Term Policy
China Can’t Cut EV Subsidies It Isn’t Paying
Health Inequality and Economic Disparities by Race, Ethnicity, and Gender