Boiling Oceans. The GDP Hit From Heat. The Teen Screen Crisis. The Show I’ve Been Waiting For! – Plus More #202
Grüezi! I’m Adrian Monck – welcome!
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1️⃣ 🌡️🌊 Boiling the Ocean 🚨
Not the search for the solution to climate change. The result.
Some people have been dismissing climate science as alarmist, but what if the scientists had underestimated how bad things are.
Don’t get me wrong, no one would actually do anything, but the signs are flashing red that climate science has been underplaying things. 🚨
Exhibit #1 – 300 years of dead sea sponge skeletons. 🧽 🩻
Researchers analyzed chemical records from sea sponge skeletons from the Eastern Caribbean;
They found the baseline for measuring global warming should be 1700-1860, not 1850-1900;
Using this baseline, the planet has already warmed by 1.7°C since pre-industrial times, busting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal.
Exhibit #2: Record-Breaking Ocean Temperatures in 2023 🌊🌡️🔥
Sea surface temperatures have been setting new records month after month since early 2023;
Extreme warming has scientists questioning if current climate models are underestimating the rate and magnitude of change;
Could the earth’s climate may be shifting in ways we haven’t yet accounted for?
Why is the sea so hot? (New Yorker)
12 months of record ocean heat has scientists puzzled and concerned. (NBC)
This chart of ocean temperatures should really scare you. (Vox)
⏭ Climate change indicators reached record levels in 2023.
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2️⃣ The Heat Hit Coming to Global GDP
Doesn’t matter if you’re not sweating – your supply chain is.
In a world of geopolitical rivalry, one thing is coming for after all of us. Heat.
Chinese academics have been looking at the impact of extreme heat as climate change ramps up.
Their “moderate” scenario makes grim reading:
By 2060, the global economy could lose 2% of its total value (GDP) due to heat hurting health, worker productivity, and disrupting supply chains.
The economic hits worsen over time, with the annual loss increasing from 0.03% by 2030 to 0.05% by 2050.
About 25% of total losses by 2060 will come from indirect impacts like supply chain disruptions.
South-Central Africa and Southeast Asia will be worst hit.
Industries like construction, agriculture, and manufacturing could still face significant losses.
The Implications for Business Leaders? 💼🌱
As decision-makers, it’s crucial to understand the potential economic impacts of climate change, even under moderate scenarios.
What should we do about it? That’s where the fun starts.
⏭ The fossil fuel industry says the energy transition is failing.
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3️⃣ Are Screens Destroying Teens?
A new book has no doubt – should we?
The social media boom of the 2010s has coincided with a big rise in teenage depression, anxiety and self-harm. Girls have been hardest hit.
These trends are pretty consistent across the developed world, from the US to the UK and beyond.
Social psychologist Jonathan Haidt is sounding the alarm. And he has a book out – The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness.
Haidt says the evidence is clear:
Social media is a key driver of the teen mental health crisis.
But these claims have sparked strong pushback from prominent academics, like Amy Orben, who say Haidt’s standards of proof are far too low.
So what’s the real story?
Haidt’s case is intuitively appealing. But academic research is supposed to be evidence, not activism-led – and Haidt’s moral campaigning makes it look like he’s come to a conclusion and gone hunting for evidence to back it up.
Many other researchers in the field are not crying wolf. There are a lot of things going on in society beyond smart phones.
Agree? Disagree? Let me know your thoughts in the comments. 🚀🙏
⏭ On the ‘overwhelming evidence’ for social media destroying kids’ brains.
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4️⃣ The Media Deal of the Millennium
The human being behind the Time-Warner/AOL deal.
Matt Murray’s latest weekly email ends this week on the legacy of the millennium’s most powerful media executive – Jerry Levin – who negotiated the disastrous merger of Time-Warner and AOL.
But it’s not about his legacy as a deal-maker and executive.
At the peak of his power, Levin endured the brutal and tragic murder of his son, Jonathan, a beloved teacher who was killed by a student. Levin was profoundly grief stricken, but went back to work. After corporate life, he focused on mental health and pursued inner peace. In 2008, he reflected:
“I think I'm the poster child for not paying attention to the most important thing in the world. The death of my son was probably the pivotal experience of my life.
To not understand that, to not deal with it, to just return and work even harder— I hope people can understand and learn from that because I just put an iron curtain in front of my emotions.
And our business culture actually encourages that: Your ability to negotiate and succeed comes not from being emotionally vulnerable, it comes from being almost a testosterone superman.
What a terrible failing on my part not to have taken that tragedy and tried to understand.”
If you think today’s concern about workplace mental health is simply cosseting millenial snowflakes, take a look at Levin’s
⏭ If you appreciate insightful writing, sign up for Matt’s weekly email here.
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5️⃣ The Island That’s An Economist’s Laboratory
And – for half its people – a living hell.
Imagine an island split in two, each side pursuing radically different paths.
The east embraces pro-growth policies.
It enjoys decades of strong, diversified growth by attracting investors with special economic zones, protecting its forests, and investing in education, healthcare and welfare.
It’s recipe? “Pro-business policies coupled with increased social spending.”
The result? It becomes a rising regional power poised to potentially reach advanced economy status by 2060.
The west struggles with corruption, poverty and instability.
Deforestation hits its farms and food production.
Economic initiatives are plagued by poor infrastructure and governance.
Political instability and crime deter tourism.
Sadly, this isn’t an economist’s thought experiment, it’s the Caribbean island of Hispaniola.
To the east is the Dominican Republic. To the west, Haiti – currently in the grip of political crisis and street violence.
The takeaway is clear: policies matter for development. The reality though? The Dominican Republic has shut its doors to fleeing Haitians.
⏭ The only thing Haiti’s gangs produce? Violence and YouTube videos.
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6️⃣ #AI Finally Gets to Grips With The Big Stuff
Corners in football...
A new paper from Google’s DeepMind researchers shows they haven’t been working on creating an #AI overlord.
Instead, they’ve been busy trying to suck the joy out of football. 🤯⚽💥
They’ve created an AI assistant that can predict with frightening accuracy who will receive the ball from a corner and if it’ll lead to a shot on goal. 🎯
In the end, the most frightening thing about technology is the useless tasks we set for it.
⏭ Football tactics are more than just kick and run.
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7️⃣ The Show I’ve Been Waiting To Watch
I hope you like Chinese Sci-Fi – and I hope Netflix gets it right!
The soundtrack, by the way, is a remix of Dinah Washington’s vocals from This Bitter Earth. If it sounds familiar, Martin Scorsese used this brilliant version at the end of ‘Shutter Island.’
⏭ ‘Three Body Problem’ by Liu Cixin is a great read in translation.
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If you enjoy this newsletter – please recommend it!
Best,
Adrian
