How Infrastructure Really Rules Politics: From Habsburg Habits to Soviet Nuclear Relics #257
Institutional Decay Edition
Grüezi!
The Physics Problem: From Polish voters choosing flawed nationalists to Soviet reactors dictating EU foreign policy, technical realities increasingly override democratic preferences – whilst Brussels repeats Habsburg mistakes of institutional paralysis
The Dependency Trap: Britain’s £50 billion Pacific pivot under Trump, China’s carbon fibre capture, and Harvard’s global elite factory reveal how infrastructure choices and institutional capture create permanent political constraints
The Pricing Revolution: As Trump destroys American soft power through transactional thinking, New York’s congestion charge success suggests algorithmic solutions for social media's attention traffic jams – proving markets can fix what politics cannot
1️⃣ Europe’s Habsburg Hangover
Poland’s New President Means Imperial Déjà Vu For Brussels
TL;DR
Conservative Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland’s presidency, promising to veto EU judicial reforms
Warsaw’s pro-European, liberal democratic orientation under Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government just got a kicking
Imperial déjà vu as Brussels faces the same institutional inertia that ended the Habsburg Empire
Nawrocki won over 51 per cent of Poles by promising to veto EU-backed judicial reforms and block recovery funds tied to rule-of-law conditions. The measures – designed to stop “democratic backsliding” – look dead on arrival.
He triumphed despite – or maybe because of – revelations about his participation in ustawka (choreographed football thuggery). The message? Polish voters – especially young ones – increasingly prefer their nationalism nastinier.
The European Commission President’s measured congratulations to Nawrocki, emphasising “shared democratic values,” captures a debilitating elite psychology.
Rather than confidently defending European integration, Brussels constantly defers, justifying itself to increasingly sceptical audiences. Ursula von der Leyen’s presidency doesn’t have the authority that comes with an electoral backstop.
This defensive Euro-crouch mirrors the chronic institutional insecurity that plagued the Habsburg Empire’s final decades.
The Habsburgs called it fortwursteln – muddling through problems without decisive action. Brussels has elevated this indecision to institutional art. Its parliament remains toothless and its appointees lack a political mandate.
Seven EU member states now have far-right parties in government. Nawrocki’s victory in Poland – a country receiving over €100 billion in EU funds yet electing a president promising to obstruct European integration – reveals how quickly sentiment shifts when institutions appear impotent.
Unless Brussels gives itself either the legitimacy or the authority to tackle recalcitrant states it may find more of its members heading Poland’s way.
Consequences
Brussels must choose between Habsburg-style paralysis or constitutional courage
Qualified majority voting on foreign policy becomes essential for survival
European integration either delivers clear benefits or faces dissolution
2️⃣ Atoms and Autocrats
How Soviet Reactors Hold European Democracy Hostage
TL;DR
Hungary doubled nuclear fuel imports from Russia to 103 tonnes worth €124 million in 2023
Twenty Soviet-designed reactors across EU states require Russian fuel to operate
Technologies create permanent institutional constraints that outlast elections
At Davos in January, Ursula von der Leyen proudly declared that Europe’s gas imports from Russia had dropped by 75%. But whilst Brussels talked up its fossil fuel “freedom,” Hungary was quietly doubling its nuclear fuel purchases from Moscow – 103 tonnes worth €124 million in 2023, up from 50-80 tonnes annually.
This isn’t just Viktor Orbán. It’s physics constraining politics in ways that democratic theories never anticipated.
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union built a specific type of nuclear reactor called VVER – think of it as the AK-47 of atomic energy. Simple, robust, effective.
Hungary’s Paks plant generates over 50% of the country’s electricity from four Soviet-designed reactors.
For decades, only Russia’s TVEL could manufacture this fuel at commercial scale. Imagine your car could only run on a specific type of gas made by one company owned by a government that just invaded your nextdoor neighbour. That is Europe’s nuclear predicament.
Sanctions against Russia must be renewed every six months by unanimous agreement of all 27 member states. Unsurprisingly, Hungary vowed to veto any EU sanctions affecting nuclear energy. Slovakia joined this position in 2023.
The EU’s sclerotic and democratically distant decision-making amplifies these nuclear constraints by institutional design.
Consequences
Technical timelines for alternatives extend throughout the decade
Infrastructure choices from the 1970s now limit EU foreign policy in 2025
Democracy bends to the physics of fission
3️⃣ Pacific Pivot or European Evasion?
Britain’s £50 Billion Submarine Gamble Under Trump
TL;DR
Britain just spent £50 bn to buy Pacific-focused submarines for the late 2030s
Russian hybrid attacks escalate against European undersea infrastructure today
Britain bends to unprecedented technological dependence on Trump’s America
Britain faces a strategic puzzle. The SSN-AUKUS submarine programme it just announced promises naval modernisation and jobs, but at what cost?
It’s building attack submarines optimised for Pacific operations in the next decade whilst Russian hybrid attacks escalate against European infrastructure and Arctic tensions mount in its own backyard.
The timing raises uncomfortable questions. Undersea cables carrying 99% of global internet traffic face persistent threats in the Baltic and North Sea, but Britain is investing in boats designed for South China Sea patrols.
British dependence becomes problematic under Trump’s transactional alliance approach.
Unlike previous British nuclear submarines using homegrown designs, SSN-AUKUS requires US approval for maintenance, refuelling, and systems integration.
America’s most unpredictable president now controls the technology essential to Britain’s most expensive defence programme.
A credible alternative existed. For £20 billion, Britain could have built Europe’s premier maritime security capability: ice-capable Arctic patrol vessels, dedicated cable protection ships, and enhanced North Sea patrol craft.
This fleet would address actual threats in domains where British geographic position and expertise provide natural advantages.
Why didn’t it? Ask British politicians.
Consequences
Britain prioritises distant Pacific operations over European maritime security
Technological dependence weakens sovereign decision-making
£50 billion choice determines whether Britain leads European defence or serves American strategy
4️⃣ Beyond the Plaza Playbook
China’s Carbon Fibre Capture Signals a New Economic Reality
TL;DR
China has 90 per cent of polyacrylonitrile (PAN) production – the critical feedstock for carbon fibre
Currency strong-arm tactics that worked on Japan fail against China’s vertical integration
Strategic material dominance creates chokepoints financial engineering can’t bypass
Stuff like carbon fibre not computer chips are China’s secret economic weapon. Four years ago, China was a massive carbon fibre importer. Today, the country that once relied on Japanese and American supply controls 90 per cent of PAN production – the critical feedstock for carbon fibre. China is now a net exporter of complex carbon fibre products.
Carbon fibre is one of the strongest but dullest materials in modern manufacturing. China’s carbon fibre strength tells you something about how prepared it is for a financial and economic showdown with the US and its allies.
In the 1980s. The US met economic rivalry from Japan with the Plaza Accord: crashing the dollar to revive US competitiveness and crushing Japan’s global manufacturing might with the same move.
It succeeded because Japan was militarily defanged and its manufacturing dominance rested on its currency advantage. Its export model was vulnerable.
Rather than competing on currency advantages, Chinese manufacturers have built vertical integration that eliminates external dependencies.
Unlike Japan’s response to external pressure – monetary accommodation that inflated bubbles and produced a property crash – China has responded by tightening control of inputs that Western industries cannot easily replace.
Chinese carbon fibre production – 138k tonnes in 2023, a 26k-tonne increase from 2022 – is also driven primarily by domestic demand rather than export dependence.
China processes 85% of rare earths and produces 90% of rare earth magnets. These positions were built up through production capacity rather than currency advantages. Unlike Japan’s asset bubble vulnerabilities, these represent real economy capabilities.
The US may need a different approach to tackle this rivalry. Creative imagination might be a more successful long-term strategy than intimidation.
Consequences
Western governments need industrial policy focused on rebuilding processing capacity
Financial pressure tactics require updating for economies built around strategic autonomy
China’s systematic capture of upstream materials creates permanent competitive advantages
5️⃣ America’s Imperial Boomerang
How Trump’s Trade Wars Destroy US Power
TL;DR
Trump grasps trade power mechanics but destroys the institutional frameworks that sustain leverage
America’s $382 billion trade deficit with China represents advantage, not vulnerability
Each coercive victory transforms institutional relationships into transactional exchanges
Joseph Nye’s last essay is a warning. Nye, who came up with the idea of soft power, sees in Trump’s trade war tactics a profound misunderstanding.
Trump, says Nye, gets that “asymmetric interdependence confers an advantage on the less dependent actor” but destroys the institutional frameworks that make such leverage sustainable.
The mechanics, argues Nye, are counterintuitive but crucial. America’s $382 billion trade deficit with China represents leverage, not vulnerability, because “the paradox of trade power is that success in a trading relationship – as indicated by one state having a trade surplus with another – is a source of vulnerability”.
“By assailing interdependence, he undercuts the very foundation of American power.”
Trump exploits this dynamic effectively: his asymmetric advantages with major trading partners – China at 3:1 export ratios, Japan at 1.8:1, EU at 1.6:1 – explain his tactical successes with tariff threats.
But every victory erodes the institutional trust that makes partners accept such arrangements.
Nye’s final message is one that seems to increasingly go unheard: America’s true economic power operates through institutional architecture, not bilateral balances.
Dollar reserve currency status enables financial sanctions that bypass trade channels entirely. Federal Reserve swap lines create monetary dependencies.
Consequences
Institutional abandonment creates competitor opportunities difficult to reverse
Soft power erosion increases enforcement costs whilst reducing leverage effectiveness
Trump may achieve accelerating American decline through misuse of American strength
6️⃣ Harvard’s Aristocracy Factory
Say Hi! to the World’s Versailles
TL;DR
10% of global elites and 16% of American elites share Harvard credentials
Princess Elisabeth and Xi Jinping’s daughter both use Harvard degrees for meritocratic legitimacy
Institution monopolises leadership positions across democracies and autocracies
Donald Trump’s culture war on Harvard has produced a striking irony: his foreign student ban threatens to expel Belgium’s future queen from America’s most elite university. Princess Elisabeth – an actual aristocrat – faces the possibility of removal from an institution that specialises in laundering genealogical advantage.
Unlike crude nepotism, Harvard’s entry procedures are constructed to manufacture moral ambiguity about merit versus privilege. They provide ideological cover for advantaging the already-advantaged.
Research by Ricardo Salas-Díaz and Kevin Young reveals that 10% of global elites and 16% of American elites share this single institutional credential.
This isn’t educational excellence – it’s college as Versailles.
The Chinese evidence proves the point. Since the 1990s, Beijing has sent thousands of mid-career officials through organised programmes like “China’s Leaders in Development.”
The late Joseph Nye would have argued that Harvard’s global reach generates vital soft power. But that soft power gets recycled by American elites. Foreign graduates gain access to networks shaping policy from Wall Street to Washington – influence that ordinary Americans never access.
Ordinary Americans intuitively grasp the unfairness. They see America’s premier institution rubber-stamping domestic elites whilst training foreign cadres who return home wielding American-influenced power. Regular citizens remain excluded from these networks. Trump’s political instincts target grievance faster than most politicians can identify it.
But when princesses and Chinese party officials require Harvard degrees for modern relevance, something fundamental has shifted. The question isn’t whether Harvard educates effectively – it’s whether democracies can tolerate the institutions that manufacture influence by reinforcing unfairness.
Consequences
Single-university monopolisation of leadership positions threatens democratic legitimacy
Foreign graduates gain access to networks shaping policy whilst ordinary Americans remain excluded
Institutional transparency required to prevent elite legitimacy manufacturing
7️⃣ Pricing the Infinite Scroll
How Traffic Congestion Charging Could Fix Social Media
TL;DR
New York’s congestion charge slashed traffic by 7.5% in its opening week
Social media feeds operate as unpriced public resources creating attention traffic jams
Algorithmic congestion pricing could redistribute exposure from viral posts to quality content
One frosty Monday in January, drivers entering Manhattan below 60th Street encountered an invisible tollbooth. New York’s fresh congestion charge – nine dollars per car at peak hours – slashed traffic into the central business district by 7.5% in its opening week, roughly 273,000 fewer vehicles.
The principle predates the Lincoln Tunnel: when a public resource grows finite and overcrowding damages everyone, price the excess usage.
Yet the most jammed space in contemporary life – our scrolling, buzzing feeds – remains an unregulated scramble.
Picture opening Instagram or X and encountering global headlines, local writers, backyard inventors, and only the occasional clickbait video within one session.
Platforms already measure every impression and viewing second. A congestion-priced feed would add one layer: tracking exposure through live tallies of impressions or minutes consumed per post.
Once exposure exceeds a threshold – say ten million view-seconds – the ranking system begins reducing the post’s score unless engagement stays genuinely exceptional.
WhatsApp’s forwarding restriction offers a compelling precedent. In 2020 the messaging platform capped any message already forwarded five times to one additional chat.
The adjustment produced a 70% decline in ‘highly forwarded’ items – precisely the messages most prone to spreading rumours and conspiracies.
Consequences
Diversity through design disrupts attention power laws granting niche voices hearing
Circuit-breaker for misinformation slows explosive rumour phases
Fairer creative markets emerge as mid-tier content gains reach typically consumed by top 0.1%
Thanks for reading!
Best,
Adrian
Links
Polish nationalist Nawrocki wins presidency in setback for pro-EU government — Reuters (reuters.com)
Commission intends to close Article 7(1) TEU procedure for Poland — European Commission press release (ec.europa.eu)
Western, Russian nuclear industries still intertwined, report says — Reuters (reuters.com)
Europe doubled its import of Russian nuclear fuel for 2023, data say — Bellona (bellona.org)
Ending European Union imports of Russian uranium – Bruegel (bruegel.org)
UK must spend £68 bn to modernise military, defence review suggests — Financial Times (ft.com)
Britain unveils radical defence overhaul to meet new threats — Reuters (reuters.com)
China’s fast-growing carbon fiber demand — International Fiber Journal (fiberjournal.com)
Why this trade war feels so lopsided – T P Huang (substack.com)
Diplomats, automakers push Beijing to loosen rare-earth magnet export restrictions — Reuters (reuters.com)
The End of the Long American Century — Foreign Affairs (foreignaffairs.com)
Trump’s global trade war may defeat U.S. strategic goals on China — Reuters (reuters.com)
Where Did the Global Elite Go to School? Hierarchy, Harvard, Home and Hegemony — Global Networks (onlinelibrary.wiley.com)
Future queen of Belgium caught up in Harvard foreign-student ban — Reuters (reuters.com)
Traffic falls in New York City after $9 congestion fee introduced — Reuters (reuters.com)
WhatsApp says its forwarding limits have cut the spread of viral messages — The Verge (theverge.com)
The Effect of Deactivating Facebook and Instagram on Users’ Emotional State – NBER (NBER)