How An Arctic Cold Rush Explains Trump’s Putin Pivot. Why Manifest Destiny 2.0 Is Also Fuelling Stagflation and Rearming Europe. Plus more! #245

Special ‘Frozen’ edition.

Adrian Monck

Mar 06, 2025

Grüezi!

The Arctic role: Trump’s Russian romance isn’t madness but cold calculation—a brazen bid to bypass the Arctic Council and claim 30% of global gas reserves through a bilateral Putin pact that renders NATO scepticism, tariff wars, and Greenland fixation suddenly, chillingly coherent.
From frozen frontiers to carbon colonialism: As 1.6 million square miles of Canadian tundra transforms into tomorrow’s breadbasket, America’s 25% tariffs aren’t just trade policy—they’re the opening salvo in climate geopolitics where Miami sinks, Toronto thrives, and “51st state” comments suddenly sound less like trolling, more like Manifest Destiny 2.0.
While Germany unleashes a €500 billion infrastructure revolution, stagflation stalks American markets, and China plays both suitor and aggressor to abandoned allies—the world’s power balance tips northward to whoever controls the Arctic’s resources, rare earths, and newly navigable shipping lanes that will determine tomorrow’s winners and losers.

1️⃣ Trump’s Arctic Cold Rush.

Explaining the Putin pact.

Justin Trudeau: “The United States launched a trade war against Canada, its closest partner and ally, their closest friend. At the same time they’re talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin: a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense.”

Whilst politicians puzzle over Trump’s Russian rapprochement, his bullying of traditional allies, and his fascination with Greenland, the Arctic reveals his true purpose. Look north, and his strategy crystallises with unmistakable clarity.

The Arctic holds 30% of undiscovered global gas reserves and 13% of oil. The Arctic Council governs its development, lining up the US, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden – and Russia.

Nordic environmental hand-wringing stands between American energy giants and this frozen treasure trove. A direct deal with Putin would shatter these constraints overnight. The prizes?

Greenland contains the West’s largest rare earth deposits, the critical minerals powering everything from iPhones to F-35s. China currently holds this supply chain hostage.
The Northwest Passage. Trump positions America to declare it an international strait through agreement with Russia. A shipping shortcut slashing thousands of miles between Asian and European markets—all under US-Russian governance, with Canada relegated to spectator status.
Goodbye “Polar Silk Road.” A Trump-Putin Arctic pact would slam the door on China’s Arctic ambitions. Beijing has poured billions into its Arctic strategy. An American-Russian condominium would effectively block Chinese investors, ships and scientists.

For Putin? This arrangement delivers sanctions relief, continental shelf recognition and restored superpower status. For Trump, it secures energy dominance, strategic shipping lanes, rare earth supplies and containment of Chinese influence—all while bypassing multilateral institutions he views as American straitjackets.

An Arctic bargain suddenly renders Trump’s diplomacy remarkably coherent: the NATO scepticism, the Putin courtship, the Greenland fixation. It’s not random belligerence but ugly manoeuvring for control of Earth’s last resource frontier and the shipping routes that may dominate tomorrow’s commerce.

The question isn’t what Trump sees in Russia, but whether abandoned allies can counter a deal that would rewrite global power dynamics by handing the Arctic to a bilateral arrangement serving two leaders’ interests whilst freezing out everyone else. The stakes could hardly be higher.

2️⃣ Manifest Destiny 2.0

Carbon Colonialism and the Great Northern Power Grab

“Manifest Destiny” was America’s growth hormone. It meant ever wider borders, ever expanded territory. When Donald Trump says Canada is America’s “51st state” and calls Justin Trudeau “Governor,” he isn’t just trolling.

It’s a return to an unfulfilled 19th-century conservative dream and a preview of America’s 21st-century climate-change-driven colonialism.

The 25% tariffs slapped on Canadian goods aren’t just another skirmish in the eternal trade wars. They’re also an opening salvo in what Michael Albertus calls “The Coming Age of Territorial Expansion.”

As Foreign Minister Melanie Joly told the BBC this week: “This is not a joke anymore.”

Consider the stakes. As the planet warms, 1.6m square miles of Canadian tundra could turn to arable land by 2080, quadrupling its agricultural footprint. As Miami quietly sinks and Phoenix becomes a furnace, Toronto and Montreal will become temperate promised lands.

Trump, despite his climate change scepticism, appears to be the first American president to take climate geopolitics deadly seriously. While previous administrations went for toothless climate accords and virtue-signalling solar subsidies, Trump has returned to a theme of American history. Claim other’s lands as your own.

“We’re the canary in the coal mine,” warns Joly. “Europeans are next, the UK is next.” She’s right, but for the wrong reasons. The real danger isn’t Trump’s blustering threats – it’s the inexorable force of climate-driven migration and resource competition.

Canada’s “Century Initiative” aims to boost its population to 100 million by 2100, but America will have 100 million climate refugees looking northward long before then.

“We two friends fighting is exactly what our opponents around the world want to see,” pleads Trudeau. But in the coming climate wars, the distinction between friend and opponent will blur faster than Arctic ice in August.

3️⃣ What This Means For China

Panda-ing to those the US jilted, or scaring the abandoned?

For China, watching America’s recent diplomatic shifts has been extraordinary. Washington hasn’t just burned bridges with allies—it’s carpet bombed them, and returned to poison the rivers and wells.

Beijing’s approach? While America slaps tariffs on Canada, China’s Foreign Minister swooped in offering agricultural deals. As Washington lectures NATO allies, Chinese diplomats promise of “stability” and “predictability” at ASEAN forums.

China’s strategy is simple and efficient. Position as multilateralism’s champion while America retreats. Fund the UN agencies Washington abandons.

Yet China’s strategists aren’t naive. As Renmin University experts bluntly assessed:

A fractured Western alliance creates openings—and dangerous unpredictability.

Most alarming for them? 71% of South Koreans now want their own nuclear weapons. Beijing knows this would transform regional security overnight.

China Daily is more pragmatic: “Capitalise on openings while avoiding actions that could reunite Western allies through fear.”

Good advice, contradicted by recent Chinese naval operations near Australia. Beijing justifies these as “routine exercises in international waters,” but this dual strategy risks undermining diplomatic gains if it pushes wavering allies back into America’s orbit through fear—precisely what Chinese strategists claim they want to avoid.

In the geopolitical chess match, America has – inexplicably – sacrificed its credibility – its queen. China needs to think hard on its own next move.

4️⃣ Vorsprung Durch Re-Armament – Germany’s Bold Leap

UK and France need to step up their spending or face irrelevance…

Europe can’t get caught with its Panzers down…

Since WW2, European security was about keeping the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. Today? The Russians are at Europe’s doorstep, America’s out, and Germany is back, finally re-emerging, thanks to a spending boost of historic proportions.

Berlin is planning a €500 billion infrastructure fund and permanently higher defence spending. 12% of Germany’s GDP will go on infrastructure alone, and defence spending will rise to 2% of GDP. For a nation of penny-pinching conservatives, it’s little short of a revolution.

For scale, to match this the UK and France would need £430 billion and €500 billion respectively—roughly 15% of GDP for Britain and nearly 18% for France. Non-trivial sums. Both would significantly increase already-concerning debt levels—the UK’s is around 100% of GDP, France’s close to 110% with a 6% budget deficit.

Unlike Germany, which entered this expansion with moderate debt levels and significant fiscal headroom, Britain and France face real constraints. Bond markets punished Britain for unfunded fiscal plans in 2022. France has repeatedly missed EU deficit targets.

Yet, Donald Trump’s second White House coming has torched America’s backstop for European security. And years of infrastructure neglect have hampered both countries’ economic potential.

If Germany transforms itself while Britain and France stand still, the continent’s centre of gravity will shift decisively. Post-Brexit Britain will find itself even more marginalised, France will struggle to maintain its standing in Europe’s power couple. The fiscal prudence of today could prove strategically costly tomorrow.

Europe is at its most dangerous crossroads since the Cold War’s end, with threats from the east and uncertainty from the west. Germany has recognised this with a spending commitment that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.

Emmanuel Macron: “I want to believe that the Americans will remain by our side, but we need to be ready if they will not.”

Britain and France must now find their own path to match this ambition—or accept a future of declining influence, inadequate security, and continued economic underperformance.

5️⃣ US Stagflation Alert

An economic monster returns…

Stagflation! Not the process by which Bambi becomes his dad.

Stagflation. Not Bambi’s transformation, but a 1970s economic nightmare. High inflation + stagnant growth = economic pain.

Warning lights are flashing red:

The Atlanta Fed is projecting a US -2.8% GDP decline for Q1 2025.
Trump’s 25% tariffs are hammering imports from Canada and Mexico, with another 20% strangling Chinese goods.
Best Buy’s CEO warned of “inevitable” price hikes, sending the stock plummeting 13% in a single day.
Even housing markets are straining, with Austin rents crashing 22%.
Most ominously, the Treasury yield curve has inverted – historically the most reliable recession indicator there is.

American businesses face impossible choices: food companies must raise prices on their Mexican imports or watch profits evaporate. Retailers dependent on global supply chains are scrambling to absorb costs they ultimately can’t afford to shoulder. The market sell-off erasing all post-election gains tells the real story: investors are running for cover.

“A deterioration of the labour market alongside higher inflation could present difficult choices,” warns St. Louis Fed President Musalem. Translation: They’re trapped. Raise rates to fight inflation? Crush the economy. Cut rates to boost growth? Watch inflation explode. The failed “stop-go-stop” policies of the 1970s loom large in every Fed discussion.

A Moody’s analyst isn’t mincing words: “Directionally, it is stagflation.”

The administration claims short-term pain will lead to a manufacturing revival. But while the US waits for that promised renaissance, consumers face higher prices, businesses face shrinking margins, and markets in retreat. The question isn’t whether stagflation is possible, but how hard it will hit.

#Stagflation #EconomicCrisis #Inflation #RecessionWarning #BusinessStrategy

6️⃣ How To Destroy Your Defence Stocks

Remind everyone that your weapons don’t come with a guarantee…

The US government’s reneging on security commitments – disabling of HIMARS targeting for Ukraine – is tanking the US defence industry in real time.

F-35s. JASSMs – all just billion-dollar paperweights now. “We won’t let US weapons be used in some border skirmish with Russia” – I can just hear that being said.

Look at these numbers:

US defence stocks DOWN 4% since January;
European defence shares UP 40%;
Rheinmetall and Leonardo jumped 15-17% in a single day after the Trump-Vance-Zelenskyy meeting.

What’s happening? Potential weapons customers worldwide just witnessed the US pull critical technical support from Ukraine mid-conflict.

The message to every defence ministry considering American equipment is crystal clear: Your expensive US systems might be remotely degraded or support withdrawn when you need them most.

Modern weapons systems require decades of updates and support. When countries see the US willing to disable HIMARS targeting capabilities for an active ally under attack, trust evaporates.

Meanwhile, European nations are frantically increasing defence spending and prioritising European-made alternatives.

The market verdict is brutal: America’s withdrawal of commitments to Ukraine signals unreliability to every potential customer.

This isn’t abstract policy – the Trump administration is undercutting decades of trust in American defence commitments. For weapons buyers, nothing matters more than knowing your supplier won’t abandon you when the shooting starts.

#DefenceIndustry #Ukraine #GlobalSecurity

7️⃣ Beautiful Evidence.

The diagrammatic genius of sport.

Let’s forget geopolitics for a moment. This is football. 90+ minutes between Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain (PSG). PSG’s peppered blue dots (27 futile attempts) over 87 of those minutes and Liverpool’s single dot and one ball (a decisive goal) reveals the match’s central truth: the fundamental disconnect between effort and result.

The statisticians and analysts, with expected goals and possession percentages, attempt to impose scientific order on what remains an anarchic contest where one moment of inspiration — or in PSG’s case, despair — renders 87 minutes of dominance utterly meaningless.

Thanks for reading!

Best

Adrian