Inside a Trump House. The Drumbeat of War Grows Louder. Iggy Pop on Why Read History. Media Lessons From Davos – Plus more! #195
Grüezi! I’m Adrian Monck – welcome!
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1️⃣ Inside a Trump Home
Not Donald’s but its owner is not alone in wanting Trump 2
As a US Army colonel, Ted Johnson made about $100-150k a year – putting him in the top quarter of American earners. Now he works in IT.
His home – that’s it above – is worth $725k, up from the $485k he paid back in 2020.
Ted hasn’t been practicing gratitude.
“Our system needs to be broken, and [Trump] is the man to do it.”
What does Ted want from a second Trump presidency?
“This is what I hope: he breaks the system; he exposes the deep state; and it’s going to be a miserable four years for everybody.
“I think his policies are going to be good, but it’s going to be hard to watch this happen to our country. He’s going to pull it apart.”
Something helped reinforce Ted’s views. It wasn’t his soaring home equity:
“You know what made a big difference? A lot of the ads”
Ted is not an average guy. He just thinks he is.
He’s not poor, or uneducated and he knows exactly what he’s doing.
Perhaps he’s even more cynical than his candidate.
⏭ Americans are perhaps getting what none of them really want.
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2️⃣ 🥁 Drumbeat – More Military Voices Warn of War
A British General says “This is our 1937 moment.”
Readers will recall this newsletter highlighting warnings from generals in Belgium, Sweden, Norway, NATO and the Netherlands over war with Russia.
Now Britain’s military chief has the same message.
The threat from Russia is real.
Three ways to understand why the military sirens are sounding in synch:
Europe needs to pay more for its own defence. Underfunded, under-resourced European armies need renewing.
Donald Trump shattered the US security guarantee. Will America always have Europe’s back? If you have to ask, the answer’s no.
US isolationism. Even Roosevelt sat out the Nazis over-running Europe, the Blitz, and Auschwitz murdering prisoners with gas. It took Pearl Harbor to bring Uncle Sam into WW2.
Post-WW2, NATO created an unbending US-European alliance. Trump returning will break it.
⏭ NATO will soon hold its biggest post-Cold War military exercise.
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3️⃣ Understanding the Russian Threat
The four triggers for war in Europe.
Estonia has the Baltic to its back and Russia to its front. It’s on NATO’s frontline.
Outgoing defence chief, Martin Herem, sees four triggers for war with Russia:
Withdrawal from Ukraine. Russia would have to pull at least 300,000 of its 400,000 troops out of Ukraine.
A year of recuperation. Russia needs time to re-build and re-equip units.
An unexpected crisis. “A super pandemic, complete economic collapse, war in Taiwan or the Balkans...”
Western unpreparedness. “The better prepared we are, the less likelihood that they’ll try us... Had Ukraine prepared for WW2, this war could have been prevented...”
Why are people saying war may be 3-5 years away? According to Herem:
“Russia will not be pulling out of Ukraine this year, add another year or two and that is what you end up with.”
The bad news? Herem says Europe still needs €1.6 billion ($1.75 billion) worth of ammunition on top of what has been pledged.
⏭ Estonia’s former prime minister, Kaja Kallas, is also warning of war.
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4️⃣ The Battlefield Where Russia Rules Supreme
Disinformation wins where other weapons fail.
🚀 Insights into Russia’s Disinformation Playbook from France 🌍
2024 will be another big year in #disinformation. Putin biographer Catherine Belton described in the Washington Post how Russian disinformation has targeted France.
Here’s an example:
In mid-2023, French police killed a teenager, leading to riots in Paris. Seizing an opportunity, pro-Russian social media accounts sprung to life.
31% of all digital media comment on the riots came from this tiny 1% of profiles... Most of the accounts echoed far-right French politicians.
👁️ Behind the Curtain: Russia’s Digital Tactics 🕵️
Narrative Crafting: Russia’s digital war room is laser-focused on sowing doubt and discord – framing support for Ukraine as causing economic crises in France. It’s a classic disinformation move – shaping perceptions to drive a wedge in public opinion.
Targeted Campaigns: Russian strategists are using sophisticated social media strategies to amplify their narrative, including leveraging troll farms to produce content designed to resonate with specific demographics.
Playing the Long Game with Far-Right Populism: Russia is investing in the future. By aligning with far-right parties across Europe, they’re placing strategic bets on rising political forces that may be more amenable to their geopolitical goals.
Exploiting Existing Tensions: Russia is adept at exploiting existing rifts within societies. Whether it’s the Israel-Gaza conflict or community relations in France, they fan the flames, using any tension as fertile ground for their disinformation campaigns.
💡 Takeaway for Global Leaders and Digital Influencers
As leaders and influencers in the digital age, it’s crucial to stay informed about these geopolitical moves.
Understanding the tactics used in disinformation campaigns prepares us to counter them and also equips us to navigate the complex web of global politics.
⏭ #DisinformationStrategies #DigitalInfluence #GeopoliticalGameChanger
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5️⃣ “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire”
Iggy Pop on why you should read a history book from 1776.
Five things Iggy Pop got from reading Edward Gibbon’s classic history:
“I feel a great comfort and relief knowing that there were others who lived and died and thought and fought so long ago; I feel less tyrannised by the present day.
“I learn much about the way our society really works... I have gained perspective.
“The language in which the book is written is rich and complete, as the language of today is not.
“I find out how little I know.
“I am inspired by the will and erudition which enabled Gibbon to complete a work of 20-odd years. The guy stuck with things.”
Want a sample? Here is Gibbon – at his dry, comic, moralising best – on religion in the old Roman empire:
“The various modes of worship, which prevailed in the Roman world, were all considered by the people, as equally true; by the philosopher, as equally false; and by the magistrate, as equally useful.”
⏭ The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon.
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6️⃣ 🔋 Game-Changing Battery Tech! ⚡
New tech is faster, more powerful and won’t explode into flames.
🔋 Game-Changing Battery Tech! ⚡
Your average Lithium-Ion battery can be recharged 300-500 times. Harvard researchers have created a new lithium metal battery that lasts 6,000 times.
And charges in minutes.
💡 Safer too: Batteries can short-circuit or catch fire, because of dendrites – a kind of battery ‘plaque’ that builds up over time. This battery stops that.
🚀 Scaling Up: The technology is already being upscaled by Adden Energy, a Harvard spinoff working on bringing it to a smartphone-sized pouch cell battery.
🔍 Beyond Silicon: The team has identified dozens of other materials that could yield similar performance, opening doors to a new era of battery design and innovation.
⏭ #EnergyRevolution #SustainableTech #Innovation
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7️⃣ Make Your Organization A Media Powerhouse
A new report shows it can be done – just look at WEF.
When I joined the World Economic Forum in 2009, I had a simple idea to help an organization “committed to improving the state of the world” deliver its promise.
Turn it into a mini media machine for “stories of positive change.”
Did the strategy work?
A Pulsar report showing where WEF stands in the global conversation on #sustainability makes clear the answer was an emphatic “YES!”
Don’t just take my word for it.
Semafor’s Ben Smith gave the strategy this – slightly back-handed – compliment:
(Ideas need execution, and some amazing folks inside and outside #WEF brought the vision to life – and they could also do it for you!)
⏭ You can read WEF’s sustainability coverage here.
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If you enjoy this newsletter – please recommend it!
Best,
Adrian
