Pivot to Putin: America Goes From Western Leader to Wheeler Dealer. Asia Wakes Up. Europe Hears The Alarm, Puts Head Back Under Pillow – Plus more! #243

And why Logan Roy is a nicer dad than Rupert Murdoch...

Adrian Monck

Feb 20, 2025

Grüezi!

In Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings, the Shire – a mythic paradise, home to comfortable, complacent and peace-loving Hobbits – has to be defended not at its border on the Brandywine River but at the gates of Mordor. Does that sound familiar?
This week in Trump: The King’s “Wheeler Dealer” foreign policy abandons the rules-based order, brings Russia in from the cold, and turns postwar alliances into protection rackets.
Europe must learn to “play dirty” as US shift threatens NATO, while Singapore bluntly calls out America’s move from “liberator to landlord seeking rent” in Asia.
Tale of two Chinas emerges as coastal tech hubs ride AI boom while traditional industrial regions face declining GDP, manufacturing collapse, and population exodus.

1️⃣ The Great Realignment

The Emerging World Order of 2025

The delivery system is crude, but make no mistake, a transformation of the international system is under way, and there are far-reaching implications for global power dynamics and regional security architectures. Read on!

Fundamental US Strategic Pivots

US grand strategy is on the move:

Western Leader > Wheeler Dealer
Liberal Order Prop > Great Power Flipflop
Extolling Values > Extracting Value

Systemic Transformation

These aren’t just tactical adjustments but a fundamental transformation of the international order:

Unipolar Nation to Isolation: The US is no longer maintaining hegemonic leadership of a rules-based liberal order but pursuing narrow interests through bilateral arrangements.
Multialignment Is Becoming the Dominant Strategic Paradigm: The success of India’s approach compared to Europe’s alliance dependence demonstrates the advantage of strategic flexibility in an uncertain environment.
Great Power ‘Spheres of Influence’ Are Reemerging: Trump lining up with Russia on NATO expansion signals implicit acceptance of Russian in its near abroad.
Regional Security Complexes Are Gaining Autonomy: As US security guarantees become less reliable, regional powers and arrangements will play bigger roles in maintaining security.
Traditional Alliance Structures Face Existential Questions: NATO’s purpose, composition and commitments appear increasingly uncertain, forcing allies to develop independent capabilities.

Region by region?

Europe: Escape the Trap

Caught between dependence on vanishing US security guarantees and pressure to accommodate Russia;
Face the “unthinkable options:” develop true strategic autonomy, or reset relations with Russia, and partner with China;
Demographic and migration pressures add complexity to security calculations;
Internal political divisions likely to worsen as security architecture destabilises.

India: Stay Flexible

“Multialignment” approach proving prescient and adaptive;
Positioned to benefit from US-Russia accommodation;
Keeping relationships across power blocs while pursuing independent interests;
Leveraging US partnership for modernisation without sacrificing autonomy.

Russia: The Bear is back

Diplomatic legitimacy back through direct US engagement;
Formal or informal recognition of its ‘sphere of influence’;
Potential to increase its independence from China if US/European relations improve;
Ready to exploit divisions in crumbling alliance structures.

China: Patience, patience, patience

Observing US-Russia dynamics while maintaining long-term objectives;
Potential concerns about US-Russia accommodation;
Continuing economic and technological advancement during Western realignment;
Deepening relationships in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

We’re witnessing a historic inflection point comparable to 1945 or 1991.

You’re welcome!

2️⃣ Europe’s Moment of Truth

“Goodbye, America” means Europe has to learn to play dirty.

For decades, the story of Europe and America was simple – shared values, shared interests, shared destiny.

The story today? “Goodbye America.” That’s the headline of a blunt analysis from veteran German journalist Holger Stark in Die Zeit. The “West,” says Stark, was an illusion. “Shared values”? Even Obama spied on Merkel. Not so friendly.

Now, says Stark, Europe needs to learn to play rough – the “Blutgrätsche” (sliding tackle) not just “Tiki-taka” (elegant passing). Diplomatic delicacy needs to be replaced with studs-up strategic action. But what action?

Stark points out that Germany hosts crucial US military assets – like the bases controlling drone operations in the Middle East and Africa. These are levers that Europe has yet to fully recognise or utilise. Europe has regulatory power over tech giants like Meta and Amazon – real economic muscle that’s yet to be fully flexed.

Europe must choose between comfortable subordination and uncomfortable independence.

In a world where America’s leadership openly threatens NATO allies and demands Canada become the 51st state, old frameworks of analysis no longer apply.

It’s not just Stark. Looking to Asia, Kishore Mahbubani has similar advice in Foreign Policy. Can Europe actually do something? Let’s see…

3️⃣ The Asian Diplomatic Bombshell Everyone Missed

US alliances in crisis – the price of demanding rent

Singapore’s Defence Minister delivered a damning critique of US foreign policy last weekend, describing America’s shift from “liberator to landlord seeking rent'“ in Asia.

America’s Asian allies face a security Catch 22. They’re dramatically expanding military cooperation with the US (Japan’s historic defence budget, Australia’s nuclear sub programme) while confidence in US reliability evaporate. They’re watching Ukraine closely, seeing their potential future.
Asian allies balance pressing maritime security threats with deep economic integration with China. They can’t easily build alternative security architectures, and can’t trust US guarantees.
While media focuses on Ukraine, watch for the subtle but profound impact this will have on the Asian alliance system. It’s not about allies paying more for protection. It’s about the fundamental transformation of postwar security architecture from partnership to extraction.

Singapore’s warning at Munich Security Conference deliberately links Asian and European allies’ experiences. The message is clear: “You’re seeing your future.”

This could reshape the Indo-Pacific’s strategic landscape for decades to come.

#Geopolitics #InternationalRelations #GlobalStrategy #AsiaPacific #Leadership

4️⃣ The Murdochs

What The Sopranos of media-land tell us about modern media power.

Newly revealed court documents in the Murdoch family inheritance battle expose something sadder – how one of the world’s most powerful media empires actually operates:

Democracy as Entertainment. Top Murdoch editors and Boris Johnson were caught laughing about Brexit coverage in 2016, treating a national crisis as good headlines. No one thought “Leave” would win – they just loved to stirring the pot.
Power Without Accountability. When the phone hacking scandal broke (including hacking a murdered girl’s phone), Rupert’s response wasn’t remorse – it was annoyance at a “PR” problem.
The Real Product? Influence. The empire could “topple governments” through editorial choices. Access to prime ministers, private meetings, strategic coverage – this wasn’t just news reporting, it was power brokering.
Profit Over Truth. From Brexit to election coverage: what drives editorial decisions isn’t accuracy or public interest – it’s audience numbers. When Fox News lost viewers after correctly calling Arizona for Biden, they pivoted to peddling falsehoods about election rigging.
Family vs Ethics When James pushed for accountability over phone hacking, his own sister suggested making him take the fall to protect the company. Blood, it seems, isn’t thicker than profit.

This is how consolidated media ownership toys with democracies. As Rupert’s own son put it: “If lying to your audience is how you juice ratings, a good culture wouldn’t do that.”

#MediaEthics #Journalism #Democracy #CorporateResponsibility #Leadership

5️⃣ When Family Reality Tops Family Drama

Turns out even Logan Roy is a better dad than Rupert Murdoch

HBO’s cruel and capricious patriarch Logan Roy, comes out of the real-life Murdoch saga makes looking … positively cuddly.

Logan Roy at least gave daughter Shiv a shot at power. Murdoch dismissed his own daughters – “He is a misogynist,” says his son. Chalk one up for Logan.
Logan dangled the company for just 4 seasons. Murdoch’s been doing it for 4 decades. Strike 2.
Logan threw phones. Murdoch texted his lawyer humiliating questions to grill his son during a deposition. Make that a draw.
When Logan changed his divorce agreement, he confronted his kids. Murdoch tried to do it in secret with the ironically named “Project Family Harmony.” Points to Logan for not hiding.
Both families attempted therapy. Roy’s kids got a “therapy retreat” episode. Murdoch flew his kids to Australia for family counselling... which apparently devolved into “posturing, gaslighting, and recriminations.” Another draw.

The verdict? In the paternal decency leagues, Logan beats Rupert hands down.

#Leadership #FamilyBusiness #Succession #MediaIndustry #CorporateGovernance

6️⃣ The Two China Policy

Great Chinese economic divergence: A tale of two Chinas

China’s coastal tech hubs are riding high on AI and innovation, the country’s traditional industrial regions are facing tougher times.

📉 The warning signs:

Shanxi province GDP down 2.1%
A million people have left the province since 2010
Coal production down 6.9%
Manufacturing output falling 1.1%
Property investment declined 5.1%

📈 Meanwhile, in coastal regions:

Zhejiang province up 5.5%
Tech firms like DeepSeek are on the up
Industrial clusters continue to expand
Talent and investment flowing in

🔍 Key insights?

Coast is most The success of coastal regions is self-reinforcing. Tech clusters attract talent, which attracts investment, creating a virtuous cycle that’s incredibly difficult for inland regions to replicate.
Rust Belt with Chinese Characteristics This mirrors the US rust belt transition but at China’s scale and speed. The implications for global supply chains and economic partnerships are profound.
Environmental Pressures Climate policies are accelerating the decline of coal-dependent regions, creating an additional layer of complexity in the transition.
Policy Limitations Despite two decades of revitalisation efforts, Beijing’s policies haven’t closed the regional gap. Market forces are proving stronger than policy directives.

The divergence between China’s regions isn’t just an internal matter – it’s going to reshape global supply chains, investment patterns, and innovation landscapes.

#China #Economics #GlobalBusiness #Innovation #RegionalDevelopment #BusinessStrategy

7️⃣ Imperial metropolis to Regional Hub – The Empire Strikes Out

The zombie apocalypse for London’s financial reputation.

HSBC’s recently announced exit from investment banking is one more milestone in London’s incredible shrinking stature as a global financial centre.

The roots of decline? The 2008 financial crisis. US banks rebounded fast, but UK institutions became mired in regulatory constraints. America buckled its swash. Britain looked three times before crossing the street.

A temporary dip? Its probably structural rather than cyclical:

There’s an exodus of global banking operations;
British banks’ absent from leading UK gilt syndicates;
A persistent talent drain;
The growing scale advantage of US institutions;
Brexit’s impact on European market access.

London is transitioning from global coordinator to regional hub. Without addressing these fundamental challenges, reversing this trend will prove tough.

Thanks for reading!

Best

Adrian