Predicting Wars With #AI. Après-Skiing. It’s a Shame About Shame. Deep Faking Phone Calls Home, Plus More! #198
Grüezi! I’m Adrian Monck – welcome!
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1️⃣ Enter the Dragon – Predicting War with #AI
What exactly are the chances of a Taiwan invasion?
Happy Year of the Dragon! To celebrate US geopol profs Hal Brands and Michael Beckley ask How Primed For War is China? in Foreign Policy.
Like many such analyses – this is simultaneously informative and unhelpful for decision-makers.
When it comes to such important topics, how can we get less vague predictions?
Luckily there’s a new forecasting paper out that uses LLMs to predict future events.
So I asked it directly: will China invade Taiwan by 2027. Here’s its analysis:
Factors to Consider:
China’s Long-Term Stance: China maintains a “One China” policy, considering Taiwan a breakaway province. While it hasn’t renounced the use of force, official statements emphasise peaceful reunification.
Military Modernisation: China’s military capabilities are growing fast, but experts debate whether they’re sufficient for a successful invasion by 2027.
International Response: US commitment to Taiwan’s defence and potential involvement by other powers act as deterrents.
Domestic Considerations: President Xi’s political goals and internal stability in China could influence decisions.
Unforeseen Events: Regional tensions, accidents, or leadership changes can unexpectedly escalate matters.
Scenarios and Probabilities:
Full-Scale Invasion by 2027: unlikely (5-15%) given the international risks and complexity of such an operation by 2027.
Limited Military Action (e.g., Blockade, Cyberattacks): more probable (20-35%), especially if tensions rise significantly.
Continued Peaceful Standoff: plausible (40-60%), although not guaranteed.
Somewhat reassuring news for those of us hoping for a peaceful Asian 21C. Less reassuring for professional foreign policy prognosticators.
⏭ The US Air Force assesses China’s calculus for invading Taiwan by 2030.
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2️⃣ What Skiing Tells Us About Climate Change
Today, Après-ski. Tomorrow, Après-skiing.
If you think climate alarmism is ringing the wrong bell, I have a business proposition for you. Put your pension into ski industry stocks.
Prove those doomy free-riders and lift operators wrong!
Truth is there’s probably no other business in the world getting hit harder or faster by global warming.
I live in the Alps where the sudden disappearance of snow feels frightening.
The FT has a big take out detailing the steps ski resorts are taking to re-invent themself in the absence of the white stuff.
⏭ The US ski industry calls climate change an “existential threat.”
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3️⃣ Running AMOC
The creeping and weird effects of climate change.
Why isn’t London as cold as Labrador? It gets a temperature boost off the snappily titled Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – a salt water heat pump carrying Caribbean warmth to an otherwise icy Britannia.
Melting glacier water messes up this mechanism. Scientists have figured out a test – using the saltiness of the water – to see when we have 10-40 years left before the heat pump switches off. They just don’t know how fast we get there.
What can we expect when we do? Within a century:
North America and parts of Europe would see average temperatures drop by several degrees Celsius/Fahrenheir.
Bits of Europe would see 3°C (5°F) drops per decade as a result.
Parts of Norway could see temperatures plunge over 20°C (36°F).
This is what scientists mean when they say we don’t fully understand the consequences of climate change.
So – if you can lock up your money that long – maybe the ski property is a long term bet for your eighth generation grandkids…
The good news? We have our natural ingenuity and problem-solving prowess to help us adapt.
⏭ There’s more on what AMOC stopping looks like here.
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4️⃣ You’ve Been Publicly Shamed
Shame on shamers.
Journalists have always loved shaming people. But shaming has become a go-to tactic across the board.
Brands shame competitors.
Activists shame governments.
And politicians shame whoever’s in their way.
But public shaming isn’t just useless – it’s toxic.
LSE prof David Keen’s new book makes just this argument.
New research from Harvard, Stanford, and Yale confirms that shaming just pushes people into more extreme views rather than changing minds for good.
It activates our deepest survival instincts around belonging and being excluded.
When our reputations seem threatened, our brains go into fight-or-flight mode. We dig in to defend ourselves rather than re-thinking our perspectives.
In one study, over 80% of those shamed reported doubling down on their beliefs afterwards. And it was the same even when they were presented with FACTS presented that directly contradicted them!
Their identity was under siege, so facts no longer mattered.
Shaming catalyzes chaos and tribal division.
Shame terms are everywhere in politics. MAGA members proudly tagged themselves ‘Deplorables.’ Longer ago liberals adopted ‘Whig’ – a Scots horse thief, conservatives became ‘Tories’ – disreputable Irish outlaws.
Multiple experiments have shown it leads groups to become more extreme in their views and LESS able to self-reflect. It fractures our societies right down the middle.
⏭ Shaming is also a lousy strategy when it comes to bringing up kids.
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5️⃣ What Should Your Kids Study at College?
Ask a game chip manufacturer – his advice will surprise you!
I’m at Dubai’s World Governments Summit this week. One of my many highlights? Watching Jensen Huang talking to the country’s engaging AI minister, Omar Sultan AlOlama.
At the end, Huang is asked what he thinks kids should be studying at college.
His answer?
Biology or life sciences.
That tells you a lot about where #artificialintelligence is headed.
⏭ AI can help us program biology like software.
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6️⃣ World’s Worst Funded Health Demographic?
Women – Here’s three quick fixes for some of the poorest served.
⏭ Closing the Women’s Health Gap.
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7️⃣ Next Time Someone Calls...
You might want to have a pre-agreed code word to hand.
⏭ Deep fakes are plaguing elections in the world’s 3rd largest democracy.
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If you enjoy this newsletter – please recommend it!
Best,
Adrian
