The Black-Veined Jugular: Russia’s War Hits The Wall

The Unforgiving Power of Budgets over Bombs and Bullets.

India is currently negotiating quietly with Washington over whether to abandon Russian oil. The stakes are high: US tariffs threaten to cost New Delhi $50bn in lost export revenues – more than ten times what it saves buying discounted Russian crude.

For Moscow, the timing could not be worse. Defence spending has hit $159bn – 6.3 per cent of GDP, the highest since the Cold War. Manpower costs alone approach $47bn annually. The budget deficit reached $43bn in the first half of 2025, nearly exhausting the year’s target with six months remaining.

Ukraine’s targeted infrastructure strikes have forced refineries offline and disrupted civilian life across Russia. And now India, which buys 12 per cent of Russian oil exports, is weighing whether the discount is worth the American penalty.