This is a masterclass in geopolitcal analysis. The monopsony point is brilliant, I hadnt thought about it that way but you're absolutely right that Russia becoming dependent on China is the oposite of what the US intended. What really resonates is your point about India's strategic autonomy facing its severest test. If India caves completely, it kills the non aligned movement narrative for the entire Global South. But if they find workarounds which they absolutely will try, US credibility on sanctions takes a major hit. Either outcome is problematic for Washington. The BRICS coordination question is going to be fascinating to watch play out.
The headline’s a little misleading. Chinese state firms are suspending seaborne purchases of perhaps 250-500k bpd, but that’s a fraction of what’s actually flowing. The 900k bpd coming through pipelines continues untouched (govt-to-govt contracts), and indy “teapot” refiners who buy most of China’s Russian oil - around 1m bpd - are expected to carry on after a brief pause.
State firms are suspending the visible, traceable purchases to avoid US sanctions, whilst the actual oil keeps flowing through other channels. China’s been building this infrastructure for years.
Real story is India, which looks to be genuinely cutting from 1.7m bpd to near-zero. India only started buying Russian crude three years ago. Now refiners face 50% US tariffs directly linked to those purchases, and needs a trade deal. Indian refiners can’t absorb the secondary sanctions risk.
Russia’s actual problem is losing 1.5-2m bpd between India’s cuts and China’s limited compliance.
Thought-provoking. The monopsony argument makes sense. There will be other factors, though, at work in how Beijing will think this through; this is not an unalloyed windfall for China. I'll put some thought into this and add something, but kudos on this, Adrian.
This is a masterclass in geopolitcal analysis. The monopsony point is brilliant, I hadnt thought about it that way but you're absolutely right that Russia becoming dependent on China is the oposite of what the US intended. What really resonates is your point about India's strategic autonomy facing its severest test. If India caves completely, it kills the non aligned movement narrative for the entire Global South. But if they find workarounds which they absolutely will try, US credibility on sanctions takes a major hit. Either outcome is problematic for Washington. The BRICS coordination question is going to be fascinating to watch play out.
Looks like China is backing off too: Exclusive: China state oil majors suspend Russian oil buys due to sanctions, sources say - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-state-oil-majors-suspend-russian-oil-buys-due-sanctions-sources-say-2025-10-23/
The headline’s a little misleading. Chinese state firms are suspending seaborne purchases of perhaps 250-500k bpd, but that’s a fraction of what’s actually flowing. The 900k bpd coming through pipelines continues untouched (govt-to-govt contracts), and indy “teapot” refiners who buy most of China’s Russian oil - around 1m bpd - are expected to carry on after a brief pause.
State firms are suspending the visible, traceable purchases to avoid US sanctions, whilst the actual oil keeps flowing through other channels. China’s been building this infrastructure for years.
Real story is India, which looks to be genuinely cutting from 1.7m bpd to near-zero. India only started buying Russian crude three years ago. Now refiners face 50% US tariffs directly linked to those purchases, and needs a trade deal. Indian refiners can’t absorb the secondary sanctions risk.
Russia’s actual problem is losing 1.5-2m bpd between India’s cuts and China’s limited compliance.
Probably more difficult for China to do that immediately but the signal is still strong.
Thought-provoking. The monopsony argument makes sense. There will be other factors, though, at work in how Beijing will think this through; this is not an unalloyed windfall for China. I'll put some thought into this and add something, but kudos on this, Adrian.
Cheers Kaiser 🙏