Survival, Secrets And Syria. Talking Türkiye. From Russia With Blood. And China’s Desert Miracle. Plus more! #237
A Middle Eastern special this week...
Grüezi!
This week?
When protests in Syria erupted, a weak, vulnerable leader found a solution – pick on another weak, vulnerable leader. The resulting 13-day campaign didn’t just end a 13-year war – it shattered the Middle East’s power balance. Russia’s prized bases dangle by a thread, threatening its shadow ops across three continents.
Speaking of Assads and survival – this isn’t the family’s first crisis. Three decades ago, Assad Senior traded some well-timed support for control of Lebanon. His son’s fall has Europe rushing to declare Syria “safe enough” for millions to return. But the real question remains: safe for who?
Meanwhile, in a different kind of power projection, China just finished encircling its biggest desert with a 3,000 km green belt. As 40% of Earth turns to drylands, these lessons in adaptation might be more valuable than all the sand in the Taklamakan.
1️⃣ How A Ruthless Leader Facing Revolt At Home Ended Up Winning
The untold story of Syria’s most dramatic power shift in 50 years.
Meet Abu Mohammed al-Jolani – and why his gamble changed everything.
Al-Jolani runs Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant force in Syria’s rebel-held Idlib region. A former Al-Qaeda affiliate turned quasi-government, it controls an area home to a few million people. HTS is itself an uneasy alliance:
Eastern tribal bloc
Benish bloc (controls border/drug trade)
Al-Jolani’s inner circle (runs banking and construction)
By early 2024, al-Jolani’s rule was in trouble. Despite allowing everything from movies to makeup, protests erupted across Idlib. The demands? Better services, lower prices, and the release of political prisoners – former HTS fighters jailed for allegedly co-operating with “enemies.”
On the March anniversary of the Syrian uprising, thousands flooded Idlib’s streets chanting: “The people want the fall of al-Jolani” – exactly the slogan used against Assad in 2011.
The symbolism didn’t go unnoticed.
Al-Jolani scrambled to respond. He offered his resignation – with strings attached, promised reform, and released hundreds of prisoners. Those included one very important detainee: his former deputy Abu Mariyah al-Qahtani.
What happened next revealed the depth of al-Jolani’s crisis. For 28 straight days, tribal leaders and military commanders streamed through al-Qahtani’s guesthouse, pledging loyalty to the newly freed leader.
The visits stopped when al-Qahtani was assassinated. A suicide bomber? A device hidden in a gift? Someone had set him up. But in Idlib, who knew?
Later that month, the first plan for an HTS offensive against Damascus went to Ankara for approval.
Al-Jolani had his solution: transform a local crisis into a national liberation campaign.
When Turkey finally relented, his forces marched on Damascus – and won.
The political pattern is old as time. When strongmen lose grip at home, they often seek victories abroad. Al-Jolani turned protests about garbage collection into a revolution that ended up toppling Assad.
But can military triumph solve the problems that sparked those March protests? Or did al-Jolani just trade a local crisis for a national one?
2️⃣ The 13-Day Campaign That Ended A 13-Year War
The geopolitical earthquake that reshaped the Middle Eastern power balance.
The sudden power vacuum in Damascus has left traditional powers scrambling to protect their interests while creating new opportunities for emerging players.
For Iran, Assad’s demise is a devastating strategic setback.
Tehran has lost its most important Arab ally and a crucial road link to its proxy network, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Russia, too, faces a significant strategic defeat.
In 2015 it saved Assad’s regime, but its resources have been increasingly consumed by the war in Ukraine.
The fall of Damascus threatens its bases and power projection.
Russia granted Assad asylum, and his presence in Moscow may complicate attempts to negotiate with Syria’s new leadership.
Yet no one would be surprised if the Russians did a deal to send him back to face trial.
Turkey emerges as the biggest regional winner.
Quietly backing opposition forces whilst pursuing ‘pragmatic’ engagement with Assad, Ankara is poised to exert significant influence over Syria’s future.
Turkish forces already control parts of northern Syria, and Ankara’s tacit support for the rebel offensive has positioned it as a crucial player.
Israel faces a mixed scenario.
The collapse of the Iran-Syria axis is a strategic victory, but an Islamist-led government in Damascus creates new security concerns.
The nom de guerre of HTS leader al-Jolani references the Golan Heights, territory Israel seized from Syria in 1967.
For the US and its allies, Assad’s fall presents both opportunities and challenges.
Few mourn Assad’s departure, but Syria’s new leaders graduated from US prisons.
Both President Biden and President-elect Trump have said the US should remain on the sidelines of Syria’s transition.
Still there are nearly a thousand US troops in north eastern Syria.
The outcome of this complex diplomatic dance will play a major role in determining Syria’s future trajectory and the broader balance of power in the Middle East.
#MiddleEastPolitics #Geopolitics #Syria #RegionalPower #InternationalRelations
3️⃣ In Geopolitical Poker – Bases Are Aces
What losing in Syria means for Russia
Russia’s two military bases in Syria “hang by a thread.” The Tartus naval base and Khmeimim airbase were the fulcrum of a military system that projected power across three continents.
They were a single integrated operation that gave Moscow something unique: the ability to run grey zone operations with perfect plausible deniability.
The naval base justified the air defences. The air defences protected covert movements. The military presence masked contractor operations. Each piece made the others look legitimate.
From these bases, Russia:
Ran “private” military operations in Africa;
Monitored NATO movements;
Controlled strategic chokepoints;
Moved resources outside “normal” channels;
Maintained the fiction of a “limited” presence.
The bases created a protected “corridor” from Russia to Africa. A small official military presence (few ships, aircraft) but a massive throughput of personnel, equipment, and resources.
What about alternatives? Places like Tobruk in Libya or Port Sudan on the Red Sea might offer a pier or a runway. But they can’t recreate the vital “legitimacy shield” that makes the Syrian bases so valuable.
If these bases cease operations, watch for disruption to Russian activities across Africa as these networks scramble to adapt. Military presence can move. Grey zone architecture takes years to rebuild.
In modern hybrid warfare, losing bases isn’t just about losing ports or runways. It’s about losing the ability to make secret operations look legitimate. That’s the real earthquake in Syria.
#Russia #RussianSetback #MilitaryChess #GreyZoneGames #BasePower
4️⃣ How Do Dictators Survive And Thrive?
With a little help from their friends.
In 1990 I was in Damascus, tasked with delivering – among other things – a case of Johnny Walker Black Label. Back then as the Soviet Union crumbled, Syria’s leader – Bashar al-Assad’s father – was pulling off a masterful pivot. He traded support for the US in Kuwait for control of Lebanon.
By the late 1980s Soviet influence was collapsing. Iraq was fresh from its war with Iran. Lebanon was still suffering from its civil war. Into this mix, the US made a surprising move – they reached out to Syria’s Assad.
Timing was perfect. As Assad fretted about losing Soviet backing, Saddam invaded Kuwait. Suddenly Syria’s support for pushing Iraq out became a tradeable asset. His price? The US giving him a free hand in Lebanon.
The deal played out through precise diplomatic choreography. The US publicly called for “peaceful solutions,” whilst privately signalling it wouldn’t oppose Assad’s military action against Lebanon’s Iraqi-backed Christian general Michel Aoun.
The outcome? Assad joined the Gulf War coalition and cemented control in Lebanon, France took in Aoun, and the US coalition got one more Arab “ally.”
Assad offered masterclass in exploiting superpower transition to reshape regional order and re-tighten your grasp on power. The US – once again – saw small states as casino chips in grand wagers.
This small story shows how geopolitics really works – through personal relationships, precise timing, and leaders who know how to trade support in one crisis for gains in another.
#Geopolitics #Realpolitik #PowerPivot #OldSchoolDiplomacy #RegionalChess
5️⃣ Ottomanic For The People.
Gobble, Gobble, Gobble – Talking Türkiye
Turkey, having backed the winning side in Syria, now stands poised to transform both regional security and European energy markets.
The Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline, long blocked by Assad, could now move forward. This would deliver Qatari gas directly to European markets through Turkish territory, fundamentally weakening Russia’s energy leverage over Europe. For Turkey, it would be a strategic coup reinforcing its position as an indispensable energy hub.
This coincides with Turkey’s strengthened position in the Black Sea, where its anti-mine task force, enforcement of the Montreux Convention, and military support to Ukraine have helped degrade Russia’s naval power. Turkish drones and artillery have proven decisive in Ukraine’s campaign against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The strategic implications are immediate and far-reaching. Turkey now controls both the Black Sea straits and a vital energy corridor to Europe. This dual leverage has transformed Turkey from a regional player into a crucial power broker between East and West.
A Qatar-Turkey pipeline could deliver about 20% of what Russia supplied to Europe before its invasion of Ukraine. Combined with Turkey’s existing role in transporting Azerbaijani gas through the TANAP pipeline, Ankara is potentially becoming a vital energy link for Europe.
Turkey’s military position has strengthened too. Its naval modernisation programme, coupled with Russia’s weakened Black Sea Fleet, has shifted the regional balance of power. Turkish weapons systems, proven in Ukraine, have buffed its military capability and its defence industry credentials.
Turkey’s strength bolsters NATO’s eastern flank, but it also means accepting Ankara’s more ‘autonomous’ role in regional affairs. The US and Europe are having to adjust.
What if the future of European energy security now runs through Turkish territory? And more importantly – what does this mean for your organisation’s long-term energy strategy?
#EnergyPolicy #GlobalTrade #Turkey #EuropeanEnergy #MaritimeSecurity #MENA #BlackSea
6️⃣ Russia’s Secret Role: Managing Israel’s War in Syria
Umpiring real war games.
Classified documents discovered after Assad’s fall reveal an extraordinary secret: Russia managed a complex system controlling Israeli military actions against Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria.
The system centred on an Israeli operative – codename “Moses” – who communicated directly with Syria’s top brass. Through this channel, Israel issued specific warnings about Iranian and Hezbollah activities, while Russia served as umpire and enforcer.
The deal? Syria could maintain military operations if it helped “restrict” Iranian expansion within its borders. Israel, in turn, would limit its strikes against Syrian targets. Russia oversaw the delicate balance, using its military presence to enforce compliance.
In April 2023, “Moses” warned Syria after Hamas launched rockets from the Golan Heights: “We demand you stop such preparations or face consequences.” When the warnings went unheeded, Israel responded with targeted strikes.
Iran repeatedly tested the system’s limits. In May 2023, 8 aircraft – 4 Iran Air flights and 4 military transports – landed at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base, taking weapons to Latakia and Al-Qutayfa. Israel’s response? Any activity bypassing Russian oversight would trigger severe retaliation.
The arrangement’s collapse after Assad’s fall triggered immediate consequences. Israel launched a 48-hour campaign against Syrian military sites. The rules, however imperfect, had at least allowed for performative rather than punitive warfare.
Apparent stability often rests on hidden diplomatic deals rather than public statements. As regional powers search for new ways to manage their competing interests, the story of Russia’s hidden hand in Syria serves as an example and a warning.
#MiddleEast #Syria #Israel #Geopolitics #Intelligence #RussianDiplomacy #GlobalSecurity
7️⃣ China’s Desert Engineering
3 Lessons for a Withering World
After 46 years of effort, Chinese engineers have completed a 3,000km “green belt” around the country’s largest desert – the Taklimakan – an area roughly the size of Germany.
Timing couldn’t be more right. New UN research shows that 40% of Earth’s land is now classified as drylands, with an area larger than India turning permanently arid in just the past three decades.
But the real story isn't about China’s massive mobilisation of resources or the unprecedented scale of tree planting. Instead, it’s about the hard-learned lessons that could help other regions facing similar challenges:
Initial attempts at desert control failed spectacularly. Mass tree plantings withered. Poorly planned forests drained groundwater supplies. But failures sparked innovation: diverse vegetation replaced monocultures, smart irrigation systems improved water efficiency, and robots now plant trees in the toughest conditions.
The project only got going when locals saw economic benefits. Officials shifted from rigid environmental planning to letting farmers plant profitable date and walnut trees alongside protective vegetation.
Technology has limits. The project features impressive engineering, but natural factors—particularly increased rainfall—drove about half the success in holding back the desert. The project’s future faces uncertainty as regional glaciers melt, threatening water supplies.
Increasing aridity cost Africa 12% of its GDP between 1990 and 2015. As climate change picks up pace, more regions will find themselves in the air fryer.
The solution? Don’t copy China’s approach exactly – few countries have its resources or state capacity – but adapt these core lessons:
Create real economic opportunities alongside environmental protection;
Mix traditional and modern solutions;
Start small and scale what works;
Plan for decades, not years;
Work with natural systems.
China’s experience shows that while we can’t entirely stop desertification, we can adapt to it – if we’re willing to learn, adjust, and think long-term.
In a world getting increasingly arid, these lessons may prove as valuable as the project itself.
#GreenWall #ClimateAdaptation #DesertTaming #GreenInnovation
Thanks for reading!
Adrian
Links
The Russian Navy and the Fall of Tartus
A sea of opportunities: Exploring cooperation between Turkey and the West in the Black Sea
ISIS, refugees, populism: How Syria changed everything
Will China’s “green Great Wall” save it from encroaching sands?