The Guns of August. Building for the End Times. Why Construction Costs English Speakers More. And Happiness! Plus More #177

Adrian Monck

Aug 31, 2023

Grüezi! I’m Adrian Monck – welcome!

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1️⃣ The Guns of August

Can They Win the War for Ukraine?

Mike Martin just posted his analysis of Ukraine’s fight to kick Russia out of its territory.

Ukraine has one simple goal, he says. Get their big guns within firing range of the M14 coastal highway that runs from Mariupol to Melitopol.

That traps Russians west of Melitopol. The war turns.

Just move the guns from the thick red line to the thin one. Highway cut. Job done!

Except it’s not that easy.

Progress has been slow due to strong Russian defences, like minefields and fortifications.
Ukraine has had to focus on destroying Russian artillery and supplies before attacking.
The big guns need to move regularly to stay safe.

To make that nice easy move on the map above, you have to deal with the real map below.

Ukraine in blue, Russia in red. The nasty orange highlights? Russian defences.

And that’s where it takes time. With US elections next year and the summer drawing to a close the clock is ticking. Western support is vital.

⏭ US M777s for shipping to Ukraine aren’t always well looked after.

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2️⃣ Damage Limitation

Infrastructure Just Wasn’t Made For These Times.

*‘Thunderbolt and lightning … very, very frequent’*

Weather-related disasters have increased five-fold in the past half century.

L̶u̶c̶k̶i̶l̶y̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶w̶e̶a̶t̶h̶e̶r̶’̶s̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶c̶a̶l̶m̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶d̶e̶c̶a̶d̶e̶s̶.̶

The Guardian reported that fires, floods and freak temperatures will likely be America’s ‘new normal.’

It quotes Jim Whittington, an expert on incident management at Oregon State University:

“The summer should be a wake-up call because our systems and infrastructure are built on assumptions made in the 1950s and 1960s that just don’t exist now.

“We need a major rethink and need to start planning for worse to come, rather than just responding.”

It’s not just the US. Europe’s not ready as climate change dries up its water supplies. Here’s the FT:

“‘Most [water] regimes in Europe are legacies from times of plenty. They now need to be reformed to reflect scarcity,’ said Xavier Leflaive. ‘These are very tricky and politically difficult reforms but to me they are essential.’
“The impact of such a shortfall is acute for farmers. But it will also hit households and other industries, including energy production, since water is needed for cooling nuclear power plants and to generate hydropower.”

⏭ The world’s infrastructure was built for a climate that no longer exists.

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3️⃣ How to Build Stuff

Brits and other English-speakers seem to have forgotten.

Michael Dnes knows roads. He also has thoughts on why Brits can’t build stuff.

During WW2, Brits built the equivalent of 9,000 miles of road, in the form of new runways. At peak, this delivered a new runway every 3 days, plus a million support buildings. For context, the UK today has 2,300 miles of motorway.

TL;DR it’s planning processes, not building know-how.

And it’s not just Brits. Canada and the US also spend unseemly amounts. Take a look at subway costs.

In wartime, no one gets to moan about an airstrip going up on the village green.

In peacetime? Anglophone legal systems seem to throw up a host of opportunities to deconstruct construction, derail rail and putting a spanner in the not-happening-works.

When it comes to building our way out of the climate crisis, something will have to give if we’re not to be bilked out of billions.

⏭ Britain’s infrastructure is too expensive.

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4️⃣ Low-cost Lunar Landings?

India rises to the challenge without breaking the bank.

For some idea of space exploration costs:

“The Indian Space Research Organisation had a budget of around just $74 million for the [moon] mission.
“NASA, by comparison, is on track to spend roughly $93 billion on its Artemis moon programme through 2025...”

Artemis is a bit more ambitious... but still.

⏭ Space is another place where India and the Middle East are collaborating.