The Mysterious Sickness of Millennials. What’s Really Happening in the Fog of Ukraine’s War and Why Your Business Gets Disrupted – plus more! #169
Grüezi! I’m Adrian Monck, and welcome to this newsletter featuring seven things that caught my attention this week.
Also in this edition – Peak TV, making propaganda closer to reality, green trains and granny flats.
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1️⃣ The 21C Sickness of the Young
The mysterious and disturbing rise of cancer.
The FT has a sobering report that picks up on a scientific paper published late last year with the shocking title:
“Is early-onset cancer an emerging global epidemic?”
The paper’s headlines?
Since the 90s, cancers among under 50s have been rising in the developed world.
The risk seems to be rising, although why isn’t clear.
Diet, lifestyle, obesity, environmental exposures and the gut microbes probably have something to do with it.
The researchers definitely think that what we eat is somewhere in the mix:
“Among the 14 cancer types on the rise that we studied, eight were related to the digestive system. The food we eat feeds the microorganisms in our gut,” said Ugai. “Diet directly affects microbiome composition and eventually these changes can influence disease risk and outcomes.”
The FT journalists did some number crunching and one particular cancer stands out:
“Among 15- to 39-year-olds, cases of colorectal cancer increased 70% in G20 nations between 1990 and 2019, compared to a 24% increase in all cancers.”
Get screened.
⏭ More hopeful: Is a Revolution in Cancer Treatment Within Reach?
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2️⃣ The Ukrainian Counter-Offensive
What’s really happening on the frontlines?
For understandable reasons there’s not much information coming out of Ukraine’s attempt to push Russia out of its territory.
To find out what’s going an Estonian military analyst provides a very plausible summary of what’s happening in Europe’s War in the East.
Cautious Offensive, Some Progress: Ukraine has upped activity on all fronts, including probing ground offensive attempts. They’ve made some significant progress at Velyka Novosilka and around Bakhmut.
Russian Supply Lines and Artillery Hit: Ukraine has blasted Russian railways, causing re-supply and reinforcement problems for Russia. Plus Russia has suffered heavy artillery losses.
Challenges in the Air: Ukraine’s Air Force is smaller and older than Russia’s and air superiority is key to letting troops forward safely. However, new MiGs are expected from Poland and other countries.
Defence Spending and Ammunition Production: Western European countries are upping defence spending, but it may not be enough. Ukraine’s ammunition situation has improved, with the ability to fire more artillery than Russia on some fronts, a big shift from a year ago.
Political and Strategic Developments? No major political developments for peace negotiations yet. Both sides think they can improve their position. Russia wants the Ukrainian counter-offensive to run out of steam. Ukraine thinks it can make a breakthrough given time.
⏭ See it here: an interactive map of the war in real time.
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3️⃣ There’s no Gold in the Golden Age of TV
Shows cost millions, they’re seen by billions. Make nothing.
Peak TV has come and gone. It gave us the Ford Edsel of Amazon’s LOTR: Rings of Power and the Ferrari 335 S of HBO’s Succession.
But the bottom has fallen out of the TV streaming boom:
Many streamers have spent themselves into billions of dollars of debt building their content libraries, and subscription fees haven’t grown fast enough to close the gap.
If platforms like Netflix make any money at all, it is only a fraction of what entertainment companies used to make back when more than 105 million U.S. households spent an average of $75 per month on cable.
In the words of Hollywood veteran Steven Soderbergh:
“You can have a massive hit on your platform, but it’s not actually doing anything to increase your platform’s revenue. It’s absolutely conceivable that the streaming subscription model is the crypto of the entertainment business.”
⏭ Meanwhile, streaming services are saving money by dumping old shows.
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4️⃣ Why Do Businesses Get Disrupted?
Lessons from the rise of Netflix...
Staying with the gogglebox – as Brits call it – former Time Warner exec Doug Shapiro has a fascinating account of how he and his colleagues responded to the rise of Netflix in the 2000s.
This bit particularly is something I’ve often reflected on in looking at the way the news business responded to digital (my emphasis):
“Often, firms get disrupted not because they don’t understand the disruption process, see it coming or know what’s at stake.
“They don’t even get disrupted because of the difficulty of changing internal processes.
“They get disrupted because companies operate in complex ecosystems of stakeholders with misaligned interests: employees (including well-paid, powerful executives), unions, vendors, ... etc.
“This is why disruption can be virtually impossible to head off even when you see it coming from far away.”
Looking at the future of content Shapiro reflects:
Virtual production and AI promise to democratize high-quality production tools, which will increasingly blur the quality distinction between professionally-produced narrative fiction and independent content — and pour gas on the fire.
⏭ Doug’s Substack is an excellent follow.
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5️⃣ Should PR Tell the Truth?
Interesting question. Specially when you see who’s asking.
The PR department of one of China’s richest provinces has posted some interesting thoughts on how the world’s second biggest economy tells its story to the world.
Re-opening China to genuinely independent reporting would – of course – be the best way to helping the world understand the real China, “warts and all”.
In the meantime, anyone in the communications business will find some elements of truth in their blogpost.
External comms aimed more at higher ups than those outside? Check.
In some places, the primary target of external communication work is the domestic audience, or even just local superiors.
Meaningless buzzwords. Yup.
Copying and pasting bureaucratic and political jargon...
And also not just beating audiences over the head with relentless positivity:
“Telling good stories about China is not about fabricating perfect plot-lines but about sharing the most authentic stories of our country.
“Considering the vastness of China, its large population, and its uneven and incomplete development, encountering problems is normal at this stage of development...
“To excel in international communication, we need to uphold the principles of objectivity and rationality, and effectively present our own stories in a down-to-earth and evidence-based manner.”
Let’s hope someone somewhere is listening.
⏭ This is from Zichen Wang’s informative Pekingnology newsletter.
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6️⃣ Poland’s Diesel Trains go Green
Environmentally-aware train spotters will be excited.
⏭ French hydrogen trains hit the tracks in 2025.
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7️⃣ ‘Granny’ Flats – Rabbit Hutches for Rellies?
Or the solution to the housing crisis!
⏭ Rabbit hutch reading on Bea’s book club podcast.
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If you enjoy this newsletter – please recommend it!
Best,
Adrian
