The Pay-As-You-Go Pentagon, Vibe Authoritarianism, China’s Factory Empire, Plus More! #247

And diplomatic song and dances...

Adrian Monck

Mar 27, 2025

Grüezi!

In this edition:

Leaked Signal chats reveal Trump’s pay-to-play military strategy toward allies;
How China is building a $20B global manufacturing network spanning four continents;
Inside the unholy alliance between the MidWest’s Christian Ayatollahs and Silicon Valley’s Tech Authoritarians.

1️⃣ The Pay-as-you-go Pentagon

The Trump Administration’s ATM Approach to Foreign Policy

A remarkable national security breach has given us a rare, unfiltered glimpse into the inner workings of American foreign policy decision-making. It’s not pretty.

When Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg found himself mistakenly added to a high-level Signal group chat, he became an unwitting fly on the wall as top Trump administration officials planned military strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

America Inc. – Foreign Policy as Business

What emerges most clearly from these exchanges is a fundamentally transactional approach to military power.

When Vice President Vance laments “bailing Europe out again,” he gets immediate support from Defence Secretary Hegseth: “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.”

Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff, chimes in:

“[B]ut we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return. If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return.”

This visceral resentment appears to drive policy.

The American military, in this telling, operates less like a guardian of international order and more like a private security contractor issuing invoices after each operation.

It’s Miller Time!

The chat also reveals that presidential authority flows around the formal chain of command and through ideological enforcers like Miller.

When debates arise about whether and when to strike Houthi targets, it’s Miller’s “the president was clear” that immediately shifts the conversation.

His statement is the definitive word, and others – including Vance – adjust accordingly. Waltz makes the operational case for action, Hegseth bridges, but once Miller invokes Trump, the debate ends.

Allies As Ungrateful Customers

These messages reveal a historic transformation in how America’s role in the world is conceived by its top officials.

The traditional view of US military power as maintaining a global order that indirectly benefits American interests is being replaced by a model where each military action must produce immediate, measurable returns from beneficiaries.

For allies, this means navigating a relationship where security guarantees increasingly come with price tags and non-payment penalties.

We’re witnessing a profound transformation in how America conceives its role in the world. Whilst these messages were never meant for public consumption, they’ve provided the clearest articulation yet of the administration’s foreign policy doctrine.

The breaking of America’s guarantees will have deep and far-reaching consequences. That the US debate revolves around security tells you much of how embedded that shift is. It isn’t coming back.

2️⃣ Vibe Dictator-ing

Theocrats meet Technocrats to re-build America as “Cyber Jonestown”

We’re all equal in the eyes of God. He hates us all…

If US democracy had a threat assessment alarm, it would be flashing amber right now.

Across America, two seemingly incompatible movements are finding common cause in their shared antipathy toward something we’ve all taken for granted: liberal democratic governance.

One wraps itself in prophecy and prayer, the other in algorithms and efficiency. Their convergence? One of the more curious and consequential political developments of our time.

An Unholy Alliance

The New Apostolic Reformation (NAR) and the neo-reactionary “Dark Enlightenment” movement make for odd partners. One emerged from Pentecostal-charismatic Christianity, the other from so-called “rationalist” corners of Silicon Valley.

What unites them? The rejection of liberal democracy as fundamentally flawed. The NAR, with its “dominionist” theology, “has little use for religious pluralism, individual rights, or constitutional democracy.”

Its adherents seek nothing less than to “dismantle the secular state” in favour of theocratic governance.

Meanwhile, the Dark Enlightenment diaspora, led by figures like Curtis Yarvin (aka Mencius Moldbug) and Nick Land, claim that “freedom and democracy are incompatible.”

They advocate “neo-cameralism” – governance modelled after corporations, where citizens become customers with “no voice, free exit.” Goodbye Washington, hello Delaware.

Corporate Theocracy: When worshippers of JC meet devotees of VC

Both movements found their unlikely vehicle in Donald Trump.

NAR leaders served as “prophecy voters,” casting him as “God’s wrecking ball” against the established order. Their prophetic declarations of his divine appointment mobilised evangelical voters.

At the same time, “elite” neo-reactionary ideas infiltrated Trump’s circle through figures like Steve Bannon and connections to Peter Thiel. Curtis Yarvin reportedly communicated with Trump associates, while Thiel – a significant Trump supporter – has known sympathies with neo-reactionary thought.

Trump didn’t create these movements, but he became the bridge between mystic dominionism and cold technocratic authoritarianism. His chaotic leadership served both agendas – weakening institutional norms while promising spiritual renewal.

Strange Bedfellows with Strategic Alignment

These two oddball movements form a surprisingly coherent coalition:

NAR provides grassroots religious energy and foot soldiers across racial and ethnic lines;
Neo-reactionaries contribute a sophomoric secular philosophy and technological/financial resources and leadership;
Both fetishise authoritarian systems around the world.

Democracy has weathered many challenges throughout history, but this particular convergence merits attention precisely because it attacks simultaneously from multiple angles.

And the democratic “rise” of populist anti-democrats itself drains liberal enthusiasm for both liberalism and democracy.

What will stop the vicious spiral? America’s Democratic Party seems to have put its faith in midterm elections.

3️⃣ Europe’s Decade of Decision

Between the Devil and the deep Black Sea.

As Washington and Moscow stitch up a ceasefire arrangement, Brussels finds itself in a familiar position: watching anxiously from the sidelines.

The US has crafted separate understandings with Kyiv and Moscow. Russia now sees sanctions relief on the horizon – a prospect to sends shivers down the spines of European policymakers who’ve invested their political capital in a united front against Russian aggression.

Five ways forward for Europe

What options, then, exist for a Europe caught between transatlantic loyalty and its own strategic imperatives?

Keep Independent Sanctions. The EU’s economic heft – too often underestimated in security discussions – gives it real leverage through financial restrictions, export controls, and market access limitations. The question isn’t capability but resolve...
Increase Ukraine Support. European nations could collectively bolster military, financial and diplomatic assistance to offset US abandonment. Europe can’t match American firepower in dollar terms, but targeted increases in critical areas could help Ukraine stay afloat without requiring impossible political consensus.
Coordinated Diplomacy would see Europe engaging directly with Washington to influence implementation details while simultaneously building wider international coalitions. Partnerships with Japan, Australia and South Korea – all increasingly worried about the precedent set by signing off on territorial aggression – could help keep pressure on Moscow.
Accelerated “Strategic Autonomy.” Foot on the gas for European defence capabilities and energy independence. Some progress has been made in diversifying energy sources since 2022, but vulnerabilities persist, particularly on Europe’s southeastern flank. Defence industrial capacity – i.e. producing bombs and bullets or materiel – remains woefully inadequate.
Variable Geometry Coalitions. Diplo-jargon for informal alliances amongst European states – particularly those most directly threatened by Russian expansionism. Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and others have all demonstrated a willingness to move faster and more decisively than the EU consensus allows.

Muddling through “purposefully”

The likeliest outcome, as is so often the case in Europe, combines elements from all approaches, whilst gradually building more robust capabilities to reduce dependency on Uncle Sam.

The fundamental challenge remains bridging the gap between economy and security.

Europeans have to decide who they are more afraid of – great powers, outsiders, or each another?

Its options remain bounded by physical realities: energy pipeline routes, ammunition production capacity, and the cold calculus of military logistics.

Can it escape? We’ll discover this decade.

4️⃣ Surrounded By Sea Power

How American Naval Operations Reveal China’s Strategic “Predicament”

The South China Sea is one of the world’s flashiest flashpoints, like a lake of gasoline waiting only for a cigarette butt from a passing aircraft carrier to make it go BOOM.

The West tends to think of this combustible mess as driven by China, but how does it look the other way round?

A meticulous Chinese think tank report, out this week, records US military activity.

When you look the other way down the telescope, the inventory of deployments, patrols and aerial operations, reveals not just America’s strategy, but China’s fundamental security dilemma.

The Mirror Image Test

Say Taiwan was Puerto Rico and the South China Sea was the Caribbean? What would Chinese military activities on this scale, right next to American shores, feel like in Washington?

Imagine Chinese carriers making regular deployments in the Gulf of Mexico. Chinese bombers routinely flying reconnaissance patterns near Florida, or conducting hundreds of intelligence flights to monitor US coastlines annually.

What if it was Beijing expanding military bases in Cuba from 5 to 9, investing half a billion dollars in Mexican military capabilities, and deploying advanced missile systems capable of striking American cities?

This is exactly what the US is doing in the Philippines – aimed squarely at China.

The Strategic Empathy Gap

“Strategic empathy” doesn’t justify aggression, nor does it make the tension less tangible. But it does make it a little more comprehensible.

What we’re witnessing is the complex security calculations of a rising power facing significant constraints on its ability to secure what it considers vital maritime approaches.

The reality?

Both the US and China find themselves in transition – China towards a military dominance that’s still out of reach, America towards a global role that’s still within budget.

5️⃣ China’s Global Factory Empire

Reshaping the world’s manufacturing landscape

China is quietly rewriting the rules of global manufacturing.

While much of the world remains fixated on high-profile infrastructure projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese firms are methodically expanding their industrial footprint abroad.

By channelling billions of dollars into new facilities – from Eastern Europe to Southeast Asia – China is not only keeping pace with traditional Western investments but, in many cases, outpacing them.

This strategic industrial expansion has far-reaching implications for global trade, technology transfer, and geopolitical influence.

Recent investments have already topped $20 billion and span four continents: nearly all of the major facilities are slated to come online between 2025 and 2026.

This carefully timed rollout coincides with rising domestic costs in China and increasing global trade tensions, suggesting that this expansion is a calculated response to both economic and political pressures.

Exporting Green Tech Dominance

China’s ambitions go far beyond just building factories. The country is actively exporting its green technology expertise on a massive scale.

In effect, Beijing is replicating its domestic green supply chains around the world, bolstering its position as a leader in the green tech revolution.

Finland –A battery materials factory worth €800 million is being built in Kotka, Finland, 70% Chinese owned. Production begins in 2027.
Hungary – CATL’s constructing a $7.9 billion battery plant, dwarfing typical European investments of $1–2 billion. It’ll produce 100GWh annually – enough to power 1.5 million electric vehicles.
Turkey – BYD is committing $1 billion to produce 150,000 cars annually. Alongside, Gotion is developing a $1.3 billion battery facility. These projects are creating a full-fledged EV ecosystem on Europe’s doorstep.
Middle East solar manufacturing is getting significant Chinese capital injections which often exceed those of Western energy projects.
- In the UAE, Trina Solar’s $5 billion investment is set to establish an integrated supply chain that includes: 50,000 tonnes of silicon; 30GW of wafer production capacity; and 5GW of solar module output.
Thailand – Chinese car companies are investing nearly $2 billion in facilities designed to produce 480,000 vehicles annually, making Thailand a direct competitor to Japanese and Western manufacturers.
Mexico – BYD is establishing an EV production facility, while JAC Motors has already poured $200 million into local assembly operations.

Chinese investment is a triple-edged sword. It brings jobs and technology transfer. It brings energy independence. But it increases economic reliance on China.

Will China prove a less mercurial, less transactional guardian of its new global networks?

Stay tuned.

6️⃣ East Side Story

Diplomacy on the Skits

If there’s one thing that seems lost in the world of modern diplomacy, it’s musical theatre.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov gave a glimpse this week into the good old days of US-Russia diplomacy, with fond memories of his predecessor re-enacting “West Side Story” with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

Lavrov himself? He has photos performing alongside Condoleezza Rice on the piano – “It fostered camaraderie.”

Musical skits – “kapustniki” – are a Russian tradition, a kind of sing-along “roast.” This is dates to when peasants gathered to – stereotype alert – chop cabbage together.

Whatever you think of Lavrov – and history has likely already made its judgment – it’s a reminder that diplomacy is also about shared human connection and mutual respect.

However grave the issues, however grim the cause.