The World in 2025: Less Apocalypse, More Plot Twists. Why WW3βs Not Coming For Christmas. Luxury Xmas edition!π #237
More Nostradumbass Than Nostradamus.
GrΓΌezi!
A geopolitical reality check for your holiday season. While everyone else is doom-scrolling about World War 3, weβre taking a clear-eyed look at whatβs actually happening:
Inside this edition: Why World War 3 isnβt actually on your Christmas list (despite what headlines suggest), what military wargames tell us about Taiwanβs future (spoiler: it's complicated), and how China's playing the long game with more patience than a zen master. Plus, Churchillβs surprisingly relevant playbook for handling modern autocrats, and seven blind spots that could reshape 2025 while everyone's looking the other way.
Beyond the usual suspects of Trump, Putin, and Xi, weβre diving into the forces actually rewiring global power β from Africa's emerging tech corridor to the quiet revolution in clean energy. Consider this your antidote to both doom merchants and hopium dealers.
Stick a maraschino cherry in your pint of Avocaat and navigate the space between apocalypse and optimism, where reality usually lives βΒ with his elves.
1οΈβ£ Is WW3 Just Around The Corner?
No, it isnβt. Merry Christmas!
Yaroslav Trofimov had an engaging if doom-laden WW3 piece in the WSJ this week asking if it has already started, and putting all of us on notice about the βaxis of autocraciesβ β China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Except I donβt think heβs right. The alliance between China and Russia looks strong on the surface. But history and demographics suggest itβs Moscow that should be watching its back.
China hasnβt forgotten that Russia holds 1.5M square kilometres of territory of historically Chinese territory, including Vladivostok (which China still calls Haishenwei).
These were lost through βunequal treatiesβ in the 1800s, the βcentury of national humiliationβ at the hands of powers like Imperial Russia that every Chinese student learns about in history class.
China provides 90% of semiconductors and 70% of machine tools for Russiaβs military. This isnβt just support β itβs dependency. Russia is becoming technologically reliant on Beijing, weakening its long-term strategic position.
Russiaβs Far East has just 6 million people. The neighbouring Chinese provinces? Over 100 million. Nature abhors a vacuum, and population pressure doesnβt decrease over time.
Chinaβs playbook is patience. Look at Hong Kong. 156 years but never wavered from its claim. Now it has full control. Thatβs how revisionist powers play the long game.
Russia, trying to restore its empire in Ukraine, may be blind to its own exposure.
As Russia runs down its military, manpower, and money in Ukraine, itβs worth remembering that if you not invited to lunch, you might be on the menu.
2οΈβ£ Will China Invade Taiwan?
Wargames say β¦ No.
Wargames arenβt just for teenage boys. A series of games, involving 85 military and regional experts, pitted players as China and US. The battlefield? Taiwan.
Hereβs the resultsβ¦
βBest Caseβ (15% chance) China lands enough troops to capture and hold a significant chunk of Taiwanβs coast. Works only if everything goes perfectly β invasion catches Taiwan off guard, China takes major ports/airbases fast, supply lines hold despite US attacks. Still, China likely only gets part of Taiwan, not the whole island.
βPartial Successβ (25% chance) China takes and holds one or two cities. China could claim some success and try to negotiate from there. This is more achievable than taking a large area but still faces US/Taiwanese counterattacks.
Failed Invasion (45% chance) This happened most often. Initial landing might work, but by weeks 3-5, China canβt resupply its troops. Ships with reinforcements and supplies get sunk. Forces on Taiwan have to surrender or withdraw. A military and political defeat.
Nuclear Crisis (15% chance) If the invasion is failing, China might use nuclear weapons to try to force the US to back off. This is incredibly dangerous β it could lead to anything from a quick ceasefire to a devastating nuclear war.
D-Day planners put their odds of success at 70%. If you were a Chinese general, you might well look at these current odds and decide the odds are not enough.
War, though, is politics by other means, and politics can often achieve what war cannotβ¦
3οΈβ£ Middle Power Meets Middle Kingdom
Diplomacy is no longer βcrude.β
China-Saudi ties are undergoing a transformation that goes WAY beyond oil.
Chinese exports to Saudi Arabia hit $40.2bn in just 10 months. But itβs not just quantity β itβs quality. One-third of Chinaβs $21.6bn greenfield investments focus on clean technology. This isnβt some old time oil partnership.
Why green technology? It has become the perfect bridge. It supports Saudi Vision 2030, lines up with Chinese export goals, and doesnβt trigger Western security concerns. Smart diplomatic engineering at work.
The financial integration is methodical. Cross-listed ETFs, $50bn in banking MOUs, and Chinaβs first Middle East sovereign bond issuance. Theyβre building new financial architecture β carefully, deliberately, without rushing.
Saudi Arabia isnβt replacing the US β itβs less βpicking sidesβ and more βincreasing options.β
The real innovation here? Chinaβs pivot from debt-led Belt and Road to trade and investment partnerships. Theyβre building manufacturing capacity, transferring technology, and creating special economic zones. Much more sustainable, much less controversial.
Watch green tech become Chinaβs new vector for international influence. The combination of manufacturing scale and technological capability gives Beijing unique leverage in energy transitions.
How will a potential Trump administration handle a Saudi Arabia with more than one place to go? The kingdomβs carefully crafted βmiddle powerβ position could reshape regional dynamics.
4οΈβ£ Churchill's wisdom on dealing with dictators
A masterclass in realism.
At the height of the Munich Crisis in 1938, Churchill gave us a timeless framework for handling authoritarian states. His insight? You can have diplomatic relations without friendship.
βYou must have diplomatic and correct relations, but there can never be friendship between the British democracy and [a] power which spurns Christian ethics...β
This wasnβt just talk. While Churchill fiercely opposed appeasing Hitler, he later allied with Stalin against Nazi Germany. Why? Because he understood the difference between necessary dealings and naive trust.
The lesson for today? We can trade or negotiate, but never forget the nature of a regime. Diplomatic relations? Yes. Blind trust? No.
Churchillβs biggest warning? Donβt fall into an authoritarian powerβs βorbit and influence.β Sound familiar in todayβs world of economic dependencies?
Modern translation: build trade relations but maintain independence. Engage but donβt become dependent. Talk but donβt trust blindly.
Churchillβs genius? Understanding that opposing authoritarian systems doesn't mean refusing to deal with them when necessary. It means dealing with them from a position of strength.
His approach gives us a 3-part framework for today:
Maintain strong deterrence
Keep diplomatic channels open
Preserve economic independence
Churchill never let moral clarity prevent practical necessity. But he also never let practical necessity blur moral clarity.
For todayβs leaders, the message is clear: engage where necessary, deter where needed, maintain independence always.
In a world of complex threats, Churchillβs balanced approach β neither naive nor needlessly hostile β remains our best guide. Thatβs real realism.
5οΈβ£ The 7 Blind Spots Everyoneβs Missing About 2025
Thereβs no formula in forecastingβ¦
Forget Trumpβs tariffs and Putinβs next move. 2025βs real action will happen far from the regular headlines. Hereβs what the experts arenβt telling you.
1. The Migration Triangle
Brussels frets about boats in the Mediterranean, but theyβre looking the wrong way. A new βmigration triangleβ between Africa, Europe and the Middle East is about to reshape the continent. With Europe desperate for workers, Africa feeling the climate squeeze, and the Middle East needing reconstruction muscle, weβre about to see population movements that will make 2015 look like a dress rehearsal.
2. The Battery Belt Bombshell
While pundits bang on about Chinaβs trade wars, a quiet revolution is brewing in Eastern Europe. Poland to Romania is becoming the new Detroit β except itβs batteries, not cars. This βBattery Beltβ isnβt just about green tech; itβs redrawing Europeβs economic map. Warsawβs about to matter more than Berlin in ways nobodyβs spotted.
3. The AI Military Divide
Everyoneβs talking about ChatGPT, but the real AI story is in military tech. By 2025, weβll see a chasm between armies that have cracked military AI and those still playing catch-up. Think of it as the new nuclear divide β except this time, itβs happening under everybodyβs noses.
4. Japanβs Stealth Comeback
Chinaβs property crisis has hogged the headlines, but Japanβs plotting the economic comeback of the decade. While everyone was looking the other way, theyβve sorted their immigration, mastered automation, and are about to show China how itβs done. Donβt bet against an economic sakura.
5. Africaβs Hidden Silicon Valley
Forget the usual Africa stories. Thereβs a tech corridor cooking between Rwanda and Kenya thatβs about to give Silicon Valley a run for its money. Theyβre not copying California β theyβre leapfrogging it, especially in digital cash and identity tech.
6. The Water Wars You Didnβt See Coming
The next resource wars will be about rivers and aquifers. Central Asia and the Nile Basin are about to become the new Middle East, except the bounty isnβt black gold β itβs clear blue water. And nobodyβs ready for it.
7. The Real Space Race
NASAβs moon shots make good telly, but the real space story is decidedly more commercial. Insurance firms and factories are heading into low-earth orbit, creating a proper space economy thatβs more βIndustryβ than βInterstellarβ. Itβs boring, practical and about to change everything.
While the BlueSky buzz fixates on Trumpβs tweets or Putinβs chess moves, these seven shifts are quietly rewiring the global order. By the time the usual suspects catch up, the world will have moved on.
6οΈβ£ The 7 Hidden Forces Shaping 2025
Not that hidden if Iβm talking about themβ¦
Reading forecasts for 2025 reveals an intriguing gap between whatβs grabbing headlines and whatβs actually transforming the global order. Hereβs what theyβre missing β and what theyβre getting right.
The Real Trump Effect
While pundits obsess over Trumpβs bombastic promises, the deeper story lies in how American institutions will constrain and channel his agenda. Think selective disruption not wholesale transformation, tactical tariffs rather than economic revolution. The deep state? More thicker than deep.
The Third Nuclear Age
The sleeper crisis of 2025. Weβre entering what experts call a βthird nuclear ageβ β more unstable than the Cold War, with multiple players, guardrail free and mishap ready. The real danger isnβt just warhead counts, but the collapse of arms control frameworks that kept the peace for decades.
Chinaβs Clean Green Technocracy Gambit
Beijing isnβt playing the game everyone expects. While analysts watch the South China Sea, China is quietly dominating the clean energy economy. Their solar panels and batteries are reshaping global industry more surely and more effectively than any military posturing.
The Next Financial Architecture
Hereβs what everyoneβs missing: 2025 marks the emergence of new financial systems outside Western control. The combination of digital currencies, alternative payment systems, and new trading blocs is quietly undermining dollar dominance.
Democracyβs Dismal Delivery Problem
The worldβs worst political system except for all the rest is struggling to deliver the system shattering change voters seem to want. 2025 will test whether democratic governments can solve practical problems faster than autocracies. Or whether voters will continue to elect flirt with leaders who might test democracy to destruction.
The Climate-Security Nexus
Climate shifts are already rewiring geopolitics. Water scarcity, agricultural disruption, and mass migration are creating new alliances and conflicts that traditional geopolitical analysis misses.
The Tech Wild Card
While AI grabs attention, ultra-high-voltage grids delivering renewable power to where hungry data centres need it might just be the thing that reminds us that innovation can also apply to infrastructure.
Bottom Line? 2025 isnβt about dramatic ruptures but deeper structural shifts. The real action isnβt in Washingtonβs political performance theatre or Beijingβs opaque announcements β itβs in the quiet revolution in energy, finance, and technology thatβs reshaping global power from the ground up.
7οΈβ£ And Finallyβ¦ A BIG Thank You!
Thanks for keeping me company through the year, I appreciate it.
A special thanks to the FTβs very kind Isabel Berwick for her Seven Things shout out.
And remember what really matters this Yuletideβ¦
Merry Christmas!
See you in 2025.
Adrian
Military and Security Developments Involving the Peopleβs Republic of China
Chinaβs ties with Saudi Arabia buoyed by green tech
Churchill: βA total and unmitigated defeatβ¦β
Blinken interview with the Lowy Institute
Best of Further Reading 2024: FT journalists pick their favourite non-FT articles of the year